Image Courtesy of Bath & Body Works
December 2, 2025
Black Friday 2025: Who Won Traffic, and Why?
In an analysis of Placer.ai data points surrounding the biggest retail sales day of 2025 – Black Friday – Chain Store Age editor Zachary Russell noted that there were a few “surprising” winners on the foot traffic front, as well as a few notable laggards.
Two time frames were considered, both separately and in total – Black Friday itself (Nov. 28 this year, and Nov. 29, 2024), as well as the first three weeks of November for both 2024 and 2025.
Bath & Body Works scored an absolute home run, improving its YoY traffic by a whopping 23.7%, indicating that its refocusing efforts – and strong ad campaigns – are driving renewed interest. Following Bath & Body Works on the winners’ podium: Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (up 16.6%), Ross Dress for Less (up 13.9%), Gap (up 12.5%), Sam’s Club and Lowe’s (both improving by 9.7%), BJ’s Wholesale Club (up 8.2%), Costco (up 7.7%), GameStop (also up 7.7%) — and HomeGoods, TJ Maxx, and Marshalls (up 6.2%, 5.2%, and 5.1%, respectively).
In sum, the retail sector saw a modest 2.7% improvement in Black Friday foot traffic versus 2024’s figures, but a much more significant 50.7% increase in daily visit averages throughout the first three weeks of the month when compared to last year’s statistic.
“Black Friday provided a potent reminder of the resilience of consumer demand and the continued centrality of this specific day to the wider retail holiday period,” said Ethan Chernofsky, CMO at Placer.ai.
“Most categories saw visits up compared to 2024, with the remaining either seeing minor declines or flat visit rates. This is an especially positive sign in a year where Black Friday falls later [in general terms] in the calendar and when the pre-Christmas period looks especially poised for a significant spike in overall visits,” he added.
Black Friday 2025: Traffic Downturns and the Return of Mall Prominence
On the other side of the equation, several retailers saw traffic fall off this Black Friday. A list of some of the more notable examples follows:
- Target (flat, showing no traffic improvement).
- Neiman Marcus (also flat).
- Dollar Tree (-0.2%, versus Dollar General, which improved by 5.7%).
- Ulta Beauty (-0.5%).
- Best Buy (-2.1%).
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (-4.2%).
- Kohl’s (-5.3%).
- Macy’s (-5.9%).
- JCPenney (-6.7%).
- Belk (-8.7%).
Aside from the strict rankings, Placer.ai also noted that shopping malls – both indoor (up 3.1% in terms of foot traffic) and open-air (enjoying a 1.7% uptick) – were en vogue in 2025, with outlet malls remaining quiet for Black Friday itself, despite raking in a huge amount of traffic in the lead-up.
“Outlet malls were flat (0.2%) compared to 2024, but shoppers saved their wallets for Black Friday as visitation was up 368.9% to outlet malls compared to the daily average for the first three weeks of November 2025,” Caroline Wu, director of research for Placer.ai, stated.
Discussion Questions
Based on the data presented, why do you think the ‘winners’ attracted more foot traffic than other retailers this Black Friday?
Conversely, what landed those who saw declining traffic in their respective spots? Which retailers stand out as having missed opportunities, and how would you recommend addressing these?
What can be said about the seeming continued appeal of malls, beyond simple weather concerns?
Poll
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Nicholas Morine
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First, overall spending for Black Friday rose over last year. It rose online and it rose in stores. Given the doom and gloom and the ludicrous predictions (from some) of a 10% spending slide, that’s something of a win. That said, spend did not rise by enough to benefit every retailer, especially as volumes were down. That’s why the results will be polarized, and they continue to be polarized between retailers that have strong propositions focused on the customer, and those that don’t. In many ways, it really is that simple.
I think the retailers crowned “winners” this Black Friday drew more foot traffic, not because they offered deeper baseline discounts, but because they gave shoppers a compelling reason to show up: exclusive store-perks, giveaways, and experiences that simply can’t be replicated online. Retailers that offered limited-quantity freebies, early-access gifts, or unique in-store incentives stood out. Those tactics created urgency and differentiated their value proposition — a smart way to earn foot traffic in a year when consumers are more value-conscious, and discount fatigue is setting in.
In contrast, retailers that saw declining traffic often suffered from undifferentiated offers and weak execution. In many cases, their product assortments lacked newness, their promotions mirrored what everyone else was doing, and the discounting wasn’t deep enough to justify a store visit. When online and in-store offers converge — but online wins on convenience — there’s little incentive to leave home. Missing that moment of “why bother walking in?” is a clear opportunity lost. For those retailers, I’d recommend rethinking their holiday activation playbook: prioritize exclusivity, experiential value, and inventory freshness rather than simply matching the lowest price elsewhere.
Finally, the continued, albeit muted, appeal of malls suggests that in-person shopping still holds value beyond weather or impulse. Malls and stores now compete less on being discount venues and more on offering experience, curation, and immediacy — last-minute gifts, social outing, sensory engagement, and the kind of browsing or discovery that e-commerce doesn’t deliver as well. For retailers and mall operators who lean into those strengths — with smart store design, thoughtful merchandising, clear traffic-driving propositions — there’s still a future for physical retail.
The top 3 winners offer something that can’t be replicated online, and that is in-person, experiential shopping. Whether it’s smelling the candles at BBW or hunting for a bargain at Ross, this is the ‘old-school’ shopping that many customer miss in the age of digital proliferation.
Even as digital booms, we still love malls for the convenient abundance of choices under one roof. Multisensory experiences, social interaction, 3-D examination of items, certainty of fit and immediate access to products also keep us coming back to malls.
With so many retailers offering Black Friday discounts, customers will first go to where they think they will find the best discounts. And if you look at the list of winners, it shouldn’t surprise anyone. I’m a bit surprised that Target was flat and Best Buy and Dick’s were down. My educated guess is that Best Buy was down because people go online to research products like TVs and home appliances before going to the store or deciding to buy online. Best Buy may have great choices, but they aren’t always the least expensive. And Black Friday is all about saving money!
It’s curious that other traffic indices have shown that store traffic was actually slightly down, which is why it’s important for retailers to be careful in how they interpret this data — results can vary. But if we take these data as presented, they appear reflective of how these retailers have been performing in general.Traffic is the precursor to a puchase, and it makes sense that the retailers that have been performing well also saw the biggest increases in traffic. But regardless if traffic is up or down, what the retailer does to convert that traffic into a sale is what matters most.