November 21, 2025
VadimVasenin/Depositphotos.com
Is Cyber Week Set To Smash Sales Records This Year, as Salesforce Suggests?
Cyber Week — the period spanning Nov. 27 through Dec. 1 — plays host to the perennial favorite sales event, Black Friday, as well as the (relatively) new kid on the block, Cyber Monday, kicking off with the Thanksgiving holiday.
According to a Nov. 20 report issued by Salesforce, Cyber Week is projected to generate $334 billion in global online sales over the course of the event, a ~6% improvement over 2024’s spend. Concerning the U.S. market, that figure comes in at $78 billion — a more modest 3% increase.
“Digital traffic has skyrocketed, indicating shoppers are engaging early to see what’s new and build out their wish lists. This year, more shoppers are leaning on AI and agents to research products, help them budget, and prepare for the holiday season,” said Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights and Strategy for Salesforce.
“Combined with Cyber Week sales projections, we expect highly motivated shoppers who are ready to spend, despite rising prices,” Schwartz added.
The report also underscored several other notable projections:
- AI agents continue building retail sales influence: Salesforce expects that $73 billion, or nearly a quarter (22%) of all online sales, during Cyber Week will be influenced by AI agents — a significant step up from the $60 billion driven by said AI tools last year.
- Mobile sales could be bolstering AI relevancy in the space: Mobile orders will account for nearly three-quarters (70%) of all spend, and an even greater proportion of traffic (80%) this Cyber Week. This could be perceived as “[setting] the stage” for AI agents, the report noted.
- In-store shopping remains a vital channel in the U.S. market: A majority (65%) of sales stateside are anticipated to be driven by physical retail locations during this event.
- Black Friday is expected to be the biggest shopping day of the year: On Black Friday alone, a total global spend of $78 billion appears to be in the cards, with the United States market accounting for $18 billion of that sum.
Pre-Cyber Week Data Insights From Salesforce Hinge Around Mobile Wallets, Social Media Traffic, and Agentic AI in Online Retail
A bevy of other insights were also provided by Salesforce, with insights being gathered from data collected from Oct. 1 through Nov. 15 to provide the backing for analysis.
First up — mobile wallets. The usage of mobile wallets, such as Apple Pay or Google Pay, increased a whopping 31% YoY this fall. This signals increasing adoption and familiarity from the consumer side of the equation as physical cards become displaced by convenient digital equivalents.
Next, social media traffic, particularly traffic coming from YouTube and TikTok. Across all platforms, traffic initiated by social media referrals ticked upward by 15% versus 2024’s stats, reaching nearly one-fifth (16%) of all online traffic thus far this season. In particular, TikTok grew its share of the pie by an impressive 86% this time around, with YouTube not far behind — combined, these two platforms grew their proportion of social media-driven sales traffic by 79%.
Agentic AI took up much of the Salesforce copy, with an extensive breakdown on figures being presented: About 19% of online sales in the pre-Cyber Week period were driven by agentic AI; digital retailers leveraging AI tools observed a superior conversion rate, to the tune of about 5% on average, versus those who did not; traffic from AI models and agentic AI tools increased nearly fourfold YoY globally, and almost doubled in the U.S.; and the implementation of branded AI agents on owned sites showed drastic correlative results, with retailers who did this deployment seeing 13% sales growth versus those who did not (2%).
“With AI and agents set to drive $73 billion in global sales next week, delivering seven times the U.S. sales growth for retailers who implement them, it’s clear that AI has moved from a nice-to-have to an absolute necessity,” said Schwartz.
“Agents are the power brokers of Cyber Week, giving retailers the indispensable ability to convert this strong buying intent into record-breaking revenue.”
BrainTrust
Peter Charness
Retail Strategy - UST Global
Shep Hyken
Chief Amazement Officer, Shepard Presentations, LLC
Lisa Goller
B2B Content Strategist
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Discussion Questions
Will Cyber Week reach the spending projections put forth by Salesforce, in your opinion? Will it outperform expectations in the U.S.? Why or why not?
Is agentic AI as big of a needle-mover in terms of online retail as the data portrays? Or are elements of the puzzle missing, or overstated?
What do you think of the data point stating that nearly two-thirds of U.S. sales during this period will be driven from in-store sources?
Poll
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The forecasts are reasonable, both for the US and on a global basis. Cyber week will be a focal point for many shoppers, mainly because of the discounts and deals it offers – which are very important to people this year. That said, the week may well pull sales from other holiday periods and that means the whole of the golden quarter may be a little more muted, although it will still show growth.
Await to see tradeoff between Nov and Dec
Yes. (or at least “probably”)
Does it really matter? No.
We still love stores and the digital infrastructure is in place to drive all-channel growth and support Salesforce’s Cyber Week projections.
Growth drivers include mobile maturity, including mobile pay, video-first discovery on social media, conversational AI curating product recommendations and agentic AI evolving into a personal shopper.
The global retail and tech ecosystem has been busy collaborating to minimize our path to purchase and remove speedbumps that hindered conversions.
The way I see, its been long we have see good retail calendar Year, how this event creat a catalyst for growth
A short answer is that Cyber week will be big this year. Black Friday/Cyber Monday are no longer limited to a single Friday or Monday. Some retailers have been advertising their sales for these individual days for well over a week.
AI is going to have an impact (positive sales) on a small segment of the consumer population. It’s not yet ubiquitous enough to say it’s a major “needle-mover.” Not enough consumers have bought into the newest way to shop with AI support. There will be a day when most consumers understand and trust how retailers are using AI and other digital strategies to market and sell to them, but that day is not going to happen this year.
Search AI as ubiquitous = as fast as Google can manage integration!
Agentic AI= slower roll as brands integrate AND consumers try out (and maybe find value in first iterations)
For site traffic that is highly cost conscious, the low$–high$ sort function could still be core.. ie- set a budget & review choices within.
Time will tell if/how AI is a time saver to consumers in commerce.
Nothing salves depression like some good shopping and spending. There’s a lot of depression out there…..It could be a record winning Cyber day (week, weeks)
I believe Cyber Week will break records again this year, though only modestly. The Salesforce projections are directionally sound — consumers remain value-focused, deal-driven, and conditioned to time major purchases around promotional events. But with ongoing economic uncertainty, tighter discretionary spending, and retailers having pulled demand forward through early Black Friday offers, I expect growth to be incremental rather than explosive. The sales momentum will likely come from shoppers seeking “smart splurges” — practical gifts, essentials, and tech — rather than broad-based category expansion.
As for agentic AI, I see this holiday season as the industry’s first real test of its impact at scale. We’re still in the early days of understanding how conversational shopping tools, AI-driven recommendations, and generative content influence purchasing behavior — particularly in the context of gifting, where emotional connection matters as much as convenience. I expect the insights from this year to be invaluable: which types of shoppers use AI tools, how much trust they place in them, and whether those experiences translate into higher conversion or larger baskets. It’s too early to call it a “needle-mover,” but it’s definitely a space to watch closely.
Regarding the data showing that two-thirds of U.S. sales during Cyber Week are expected to originate in stores, that’s entirely consistent with the omnichannel reality we’ve seen for years. Digital discovery drives in-store shopping, and vice versa. Shoppers no longer think in terms of “online versus store” — they simply expect the most efficient, value-driven, and frictionless experience. Whether the final transaction happens in an app, on a laptop, or at a register is almost irrelevant. What matters most is that retailers integrate digital touchpoints and store execution seamlessly — because today, every purchase is omnichannel.
PRO: Cyber Week is Set to Smash Nominal Records: Global online sales are projected at $334 billion, a 6% growth (U.S. $78B, 3% growth), confirming the holiday season’s strong dollar start.
TRADEOFF: Inflation Hides Real Growth: The projected sales increase is heavily driven by rising prices; the actual volume of goods purchased is likely to be flat or see a modest decline.
PRO: AI is a Conversion Powerhouse: AI agents are projected to influence a massive $73 billion in sales, demonstrating that AI has shifted from a novel tool to an essential, high-ROI retail strategy.
TRADEOFF: December May Suffer the “Pull Forward” Effect: November’s strong sales peak (including Black Friday’s $78B day) means consumers finalize shopping early, potentially leaving December’s momentum subdued.
PRO: Mobile Commerce Dominance: Nearly 70% of all spend and 80% of traffic will be on mobile, validating the need for flawless, mobile-first shopping experiences and easy digital wallets.
TRADEOFF: Caution Among Low- and Middle-Income Shoppers: High debt and inflation are forcing non-affluent consumers to be highly selective, prioritizing deep discounts and value hunting over impulsive buying.
PRO: Social Media as a Major Sales Channel: Traffic from platforms like TikTok and YouTube spiked by 15%, proving social engagement is a critical funnel for converting browsers into buyers.
TRADEOFF: Physical Stores Remain Vital (U.S.): A majority (65%) of U.S. sales are still expected to be driven by brick-and-mortar retail, highlighting the necessity of an omnichannel approach, not online-only focus.
PRO: Early Shopping Secures Deals: The 31% YoY increase in mobile wallet usage during the pre-season indicates consumers are pre-emptively engaging with sales to budget effectively before Cyber Week.
TRADEOFF: Retailers Must Optimize for Urgency: The hyper-focus on a single week forces retailers into a discount race, which can compress margins if not strategically managed through effective use of AI and personalized offers.
3%? 6%? No brainer! With inflation and tariffs, I expect it to be higher. But that isn’t necessarily good news.
Feels like we are trying reeeaaalllyyy hard to feel optimistic/good about the unfolding holiday season. We go into the season with record debt levels and record default levels. Customer sentiment is not exactly bouyant these days. Record spending based on inflationary prices is not 100% good news.
I can see how AI is going to play a role in customer discovery and how it may steer spending to new sources. I don’t see how AI either creates demand or creates new $$$ to pay for existing demand. It will enhance the shopping experience. It may help a couple of retailers capture market share. I don’t see how it’s a boost to overall spending.
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The forecasts are reasonable, both for the US and on a global basis. Cyber week will be a focal point for many shoppers, mainly because of the discounts and deals it offers – which are very important to people this year. That said, the week may well pull sales from other holiday periods and that means the whole of the golden quarter may be a little more muted, although it will still show growth.
Await to see tradeoff between Nov and Dec
Yes. (or at least “probably”)
Does it really matter? No.
We still love stores and the digital infrastructure is in place to drive all-channel growth and support Salesforce’s Cyber Week projections.
Growth drivers include mobile maturity, including mobile pay, video-first discovery on social media, conversational AI curating product recommendations and agentic AI evolving into a personal shopper.
The global retail and tech ecosystem has been busy collaborating to minimize our path to purchase and remove speedbumps that hindered conversions.
The way I see, its been long we have see good retail calendar Year, how this event creat a catalyst for growth
A short answer is that Cyber week will be big this year. Black Friday/Cyber Monday are no longer limited to a single Friday or Monday. Some retailers have been advertising their sales for these individual days for well over a week.
AI is going to have an impact (positive sales) on a small segment of the consumer population. It’s not yet ubiquitous enough to say it’s a major “needle-mover.” Not enough consumers have bought into the newest way to shop with AI support. There will be a day when most consumers understand and trust how retailers are using AI and other digital strategies to market and sell to them, but that day is not going to happen this year.
Search AI as ubiquitous = as fast as Google can manage integration!
Agentic AI= slower roll as brands integrate AND consumers try out (and maybe find value in first iterations)
For site traffic that is highly cost conscious, the low$–high$ sort function could still be core.. ie- set a budget & review choices within.
Time will tell if/how AI is a time saver to consumers in commerce.
Nothing salves depression like some good shopping and spending. There’s a lot of depression out there…..It could be a record winning Cyber day (week, weeks)
I believe Cyber Week will break records again this year, though only modestly. The Salesforce projections are directionally sound — consumers remain value-focused, deal-driven, and conditioned to time major purchases around promotional events. But with ongoing economic uncertainty, tighter discretionary spending, and retailers having pulled demand forward through early Black Friday offers, I expect growth to be incremental rather than explosive. The sales momentum will likely come from shoppers seeking “smart splurges” — practical gifts, essentials, and tech — rather than broad-based category expansion.
As for agentic AI, I see this holiday season as the industry’s first real test of its impact at scale. We’re still in the early days of understanding how conversational shopping tools, AI-driven recommendations, and generative content influence purchasing behavior — particularly in the context of gifting, where emotional connection matters as much as convenience. I expect the insights from this year to be invaluable: which types of shoppers use AI tools, how much trust they place in them, and whether those experiences translate into higher conversion or larger baskets. It’s too early to call it a “needle-mover,” but it’s definitely a space to watch closely.
Regarding the data showing that two-thirds of U.S. sales during Cyber Week are expected to originate in stores, that’s entirely consistent with the omnichannel reality we’ve seen for years. Digital discovery drives in-store shopping, and vice versa. Shoppers no longer think in terms of “online versus store” — they simply expect the most efficient, value-driven, and frictionless experience. Whether the final transaction happens in an app, on a laptop, or at a register is almost irrelevant. What matters most is that retailers integrate digital touchpoints and store execution seamlessly — because today, every purchase is omnichannel.
PRO: Cyber Week is Set to Smash Nominal Records: Global online sales are projected at $334 billion, a 6% growth (U.S. $78B, 3% growth), confirming the holiday season’s strong dollar start.
TRADEOFF: Inflation Hides Real Growth: The projected sales increase is heavily driven by rising prices; the actual volume of goods purchased is likely to be flat or see a modest decline.
PRO: AI is a Conversion Powerhouse: AI agents are projected to influence a massive $73 billion in sales, demonstrating that AI has shifted from a novel tool to an essential, high-ROI retail strategy.
TRADEOFF: December May Suffer the “Pull Forward” Effect: November’s strong sales peak (including Black Friday’s $78B day) means consumers finalize shopping early, potentially leaving December’s momentum subdued.
PRO: Mobile Commerce Dominance: Nearly 70% of all spend and 80% of traffic will be on mobile, validating the need for flawless, mobile-first shopping experiences and easy digital wallets.
TRADEOFF: Caution Among Low- and Middle-Income Shoppers: High debt and inflation are forcing non-affluent consumers to be highly selective, prioritizing deep discounts and value hunting over impulsive buying.
PRO: Social Media as a Major Sales Channel: Traffic from platforms like TikTok and YouTube spiked by 15%, proving social engagement is a critical funnel for converting browsers into buyers.
TRADEOFF: Physical Stores Remain Vital (U.S.): A majority (65%) of U.S. sales are still expected to be driven by brick-and-mortar retail, highlighting the necessity of an omnichannel approach, not online-only focus.
PRO: Early Shopping Secures Deals: The 31% YoY increase in mobile wallet usage during the pre-season indicates consumers are pre-emptively engaging with sales to budget effectively before Cyber Week.
TRADEOFF: Retailers Must Optimize for Urgency: The hyper-focus on a single week forces retailers into a discount race, which can compress margins if not strategically managed through effective use of AI and personalized offers.
3%? 6%? No brainer! With inflation and tariffs, I expect it to be higher. But that isn’t necessarily good news.
Feels like we are trying reeeaaalllyyy hard to feel optimistic/good about the unfolding holiday season. We go into the season with record debt levels and record default levels. Customer sentiment is not exactly bouyant these days. Record spending based on inflationary prices is not 100% good news.
I can see how AI is going to play a role in customer discovery and how it may steer spending to new sources. I don’t see how AI either creates demand or creates new $$$ to pay for existing demand. It will enhance the shopping experience. It may help a couple of retailers capture market share. I don’t see how it’s a boost to overall spending.