February 17, 2026
ColleenMichaels/Depositphotos.com
Will the Gulf Between Walmart and Target Deepen in 2026?
In a deep dive into Placer.ai data provided to the company’s The Anchor, content manager Lila Margalit outlined an emerging gulf in terms of the current fortunes enjoyed by mega-retailers Walmart and Target.
More specifically, Margalit looked at foot traffic, comparable sales, and broad divergences in outcomes pertaining to both Target and Walmart over the past year. Some of the more notable data points included:
- Walmart saw foot traffic in Q4 2025 improve by 2.3% YoY, while Target saw a nearly matching decline of 2%. Further, foot traffic for Target fell in every single month in the second half of last year, except for October.
- Walmart is winning on comp sales growth: Walmart experienced a 4.5% U.S. comp sales growth over the 13-week period closing on Oct. 31, 2025. Further, the blue-and-yellow brand saw a massive 28% YoY comparable sales growth in e-commerce.
- Target saw a glimmer of growth against an overall decline, by contrast: Meanwhile, the red-and-white branded retailer saw a drop of 2.7% in terms of overall comp sales, with a decline of 3.8% in physical comparable sales YoY being slightly mitigated by a silver lining — online comp sales improved by 2.4%.
Recent traffic figures have been encouraging for Walmart, showing particular strength as 2026 began.
Conversely, Target is showing signs of struggling against a trending tide, as the below table outlines.
Weekends Particularly Dangerous for Target as Discretionary Shopping Dips
Speaking to a “core disconnect” for Target — which, as Margalit underscored, is heavily investing in a turnaround effort based on improved merchandise curation and the overall in-store experience — the analysis widened scope, highlighting that weekend traffic data was particularly telling.
“While Walmart posted relatively consistent visit trends across weekdays and weekends in 2025, reinforcing the resilience of its essentials-driven model, Target experienced a much steeper YoY decline on weekends,” Margalit wrote.
“Because weekends likely capture more browsing-oriented, discretionary trips at Target, the disproportionate weakness during these periods may highlight where the retailer is most exposed,” she added.
Walmart saw full-year visits improve by 0.8% on weekdays for full-year 2025, and weekend traffic dipped by 0.6%. Target, on the other hand, saw weekdays visits tumble by 1.3% — and weekend visits crumble by a significant 6.1%.
Rumblings From Wall Street Show Signs of a Lack of Faith in Target Coming From the Investor Set
And now, with both retailers poised to deliver performance reports (Walmart issues its Q4 2026 earnings of Feb. 19, with Target releasing its annual report a few weeks later), it appears Wall Street is already issuing something of a verdict on its faith in Target’s future performance.
Per Forbes contributor Greg Petro, it appears that many Wall Street analysts may have “thrown in the towel” on Target. Despite a still-strong dividend rate and a well-aimed turnaround plan under new CEO Michael Fiddelke, investors remained spooked: Just three of 22 analysts by Tipranks rate the stock a “buy,” and nearly half have put forth a “sell” rating — well down from the half (of 33 total) investors who rated Target a buy, and the other half a hold, a year ago.
Several major gaffes — from the 10-4 policy to lacking service standards, poor merchandising and service standards, and haphazard private label assortment — have contributed to a growing unease over Target’s 2026.
“I used to love walking into Target and roaming the aisles for interesting finds. Back then, my local Target store was filled with neatly stocked shelves and inventory that was easy to navigate,” TheStreet’s Maurie Backman wrote earlier this month.
“These days, shopping at Target is more of a chore than anything else. In fact, the only reason I’ll set foot in Target now is to buy clothing for my kids or pick up an item I know I can’t find elsewhere. The days of browsing Target’s inventory for fun are long gone. And this isn’t just my experience. A lot of people who used to adore Target are now, in a word, haters,” she concluded.
BrainTrust
Nicholas Morine
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Discussion Questions
Will the gulf in terms of traffic and comparable sales growth between Walmart and Target deepen in 2026? Why or why not, in your opinion?
What can Walmart do to further steal market share from Target? Conversely, is there anything beyond Fiddelke’s revised turnaround strategy that Target can do to rebound?
Poll
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Over the past few years, there has been a very clear pattern: Walmart has gained market share; Target has lost it. This started in grocery and essentials but has since spread to discretionary categories. Will this divergence stop in 2026? No. Walmart has too many favorable drivers in its favor, such as online expansion and picking up higher-income shoppers. And Target has not yet done enough to stop defections: there is still too much friction in store, assortments are not strong enough in own brand, and the grocery offer isn’t powerful enough to drive foot traffic in its own right. To be fair, management are working on turning things around, but this will not likely deliver in 2026.
One simple answer: yes. Target has yet to give shoppers any compelling reason to come back to their once-great stores. Walmart rightfully seized on several missteps by Target, and will continue to grow share in the near-term.
What can Walmart do to further steal market share from Target?
Correction: WM isn’t stealing anything; Target is giving it away. But if nothing else, this article reenforces what should be universally acknowledged, but is (too) often glossed over: Walmart is far, far bigger than Target.
Consumers who share ideological differences with Jeff Bezos will shun Amazon, and where will they go? The only clear successor has been Walmart. Walmart makes tracking multiple orders a breeze and has a massive catalog. I don’t see anything changing in 2026.
My podcast series, “Comparing Walmart and Target Makes Zero Sense (But I’m Doing It Anyway)” addresses the ever-widening gulf between the two retailers. There simply is no comparison at this point.
Newly minted CEO Michael Fiddelke’s early moves have Target reinforcing merchandising, marketing, and design expertise. Otherwise known as their old playbook trifecta.
Walmart is living in the space age – promoting executives steeped in AI, digital platforms, advertising, and marketplace operations. Don’t get me wrong, Target has to restore the core before lurching at the new, but Walmart’s already boarded the rocket ship.
I think it’s quite possible that the gap in traffic and comparable sales growth between Walmart and Target could deepen in 2026 if Target does not more aggressively address some of its core execution challenges. Walmart’s strength continues to lie in everyday availability, broad assortment, and tight inventory discipline — all of which drive consistent traffic across price points and mission sets. Target, on the other hand, has struggled in areas that traditionally defined its competitive edge: in-stock levels on basics, clarity and value in promotions, and consistency in grocery (especially fresh). In an environment where consumers remain value-conscious and convenience-oriented, these fundamentals matter — and where one retailer excels, and the other lags, divergence in performance is entirely plausible.
If Walmart wants to further steal share from Target, the keys are straightforward: relentless in-stock execution, integrated omnichannel convenience, and compelling value messaging. Walmart’s investments in fulfillment — from micro-fulfillment to expanded BOPIS and Same-Day Delivery — paired with its deep everyday low prices, create a compelling proposition for cost-sensitive shoppers. Strengthening these capabilities even further will continue to attract both lower- and middle-income cohorts who are balancing budget, choice, and speed in their shopping trips.
For Target to rebound meaningfully, however, it needs to recommit to its own strengths and fundamentals. That means ensuring excellent in-stock performance, particularly for basics and essentials, and staffing stores in ways that support service and execution. It also means leaning into what made Target a differentiated destination for many years: proprietary brands and products within Home and Apparel that offer exclusive style and value, and a more rigorous focus on Grocery—especially Fresh—where Target has underperformed relative to competitors that have invested heavily in perishable quality and assortment depth. Fiddelke’s turnaround strategy is a start, but without disciplined execution in these foundational areas, it’s difficult to close the performance gap with Walmart over time.
In short, the gulf in 2026 won’t be determined by flashier strategy alone — it will be about retail basics done well, combined with a clear sense of what makes each retailer unique. Target’s opportunity lies in strengthening its core, not simply adopting incremental change, while Walmart’s advantage continues to rest on operational excellence and broad accessibility.
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Over the past few years, there has been a very clear pattern: Walmart has gained market share; Target has lost it. This started in grocery and essentials but has since spread to discretionary categories. Will this divergence stop in 2026? No. Walmart has too many favorable drivers in its favor, such as online expansion and picking up higher-income shoppers. And Target has not yet done enough to stop defections: there is still too much friction in store, assortments are not strong enough in own brand, and the grocery offer isn’t powerful enough to drive foot traffic in its own right. To be fair, management are working on turning things around, but this will not likely deliver in 2026.
One simple answer: yes. Target has yet to give shoppers any compelling reason to come back to their once-great stores. Walmart rightfully seized on several missteps by Target, and will continue to grow share in the near-term.
Correction: WM isn’t stealing anything; Target is giving it away. But if nothing else, this article reenforces what should be universally acknowledged, but is (too) often glossed over: Walmart is far, far bigger than Target.
Consumers who share ideological differences with Jeff Bezos will shun Amazon, and where will they go? The only clear successor has been Walmart. Walmart makes tracking multiple orders a breeze and has a massive catalog. I don’t see anything changing in 2026.
My podcast series, “Comparing Walmart and Target Makes Zero Sense (But I’m Doing It Anyway)” addresses the ever-widening gulf between the two retailers. There simply is no comparison at this point.
Newly minted CEO Michael Fiddelke’s early moves have Target reinforcing merchandising, marketing, and design expertise. Otherwise known as their old playbook trifecta.
Walmart is living in the space age – promoting executives steeped in AI, digital platforms, advertising, and marketplace operations. Don’t get me wrong, Target has to restore the core before lurching at the new, but Walmart’s already boarded the rocket ship.
I think it’s quite possible that the gap in traffic and comparable sales growth between Walmart and Target could deepen in 2026 if Target does not more aggressively address some of its core execution challenges. Walmart’s strength continues to lie in everyday availability, broad assortment, and tight inventory discipline — all of which drive consistent traffic across price points and mission sets. Target, on the other hand, has struggled in areas that traditionally defined its competitive edge: in-stock levels on basics, clarity and value in promotions, and consistency in grocery (especially fresh). In an environment where consumers remain value-conscious and convenience-oriented, these fundamentals matter — and where one retailer excels, and the other lags, divergence in performance is entirely plausible.
If Walmart wants to further steal share from Target, the keys are straightforward: relentless in-stock execution, integrated omnichannel convenience, and compelling value messaging. Walmart’s investments in fulfillment — from micro-fulfillment to expanded BOPIS and Same-Day Delivery — paired with its deep everyday low prices, create a compelling proposition for cost-sensitive shoppers. Strengthening these capabilities even further will continue to attract both lower- and middle-income cohorts who are balancing budget, choice, and speed in their shopping trips.
For Target to rebound meaningfully, however, it needs to recommit to its own strengths and fundamentals. That means ensuring excellent in-stock performance, particularly for basics and essentials, and staffing stores in ways that support service and execution. It also means leaning into what made Target a differentiated destination for many years: proprietary brands and products within Home and Apparel that offer exclusive style and value, and a more rigorous focus on Grocery—especially Fresh—where Target has underperformed relative to competitors that have invested heavily in perishable quality and assortment depth. Fiddelke’s turnaround strategy is a start, but without disciplined execution in these foundational areas, it’s difficult to close the performance gap with Walmart over time.
In short, the gulf in 2026 won’t be determined by flashier strategy alone — it will be about retail basics done well, combined with a clear sense of what makes each retailer unique. Target’s opportunity lies in strengthening its core, not simply adopting incremental change, while Walmart’s advantage continues to rest on operational excellence and broad accessibility.