February 19, 2026
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Mass Retailers, Including Walmart, Tie Grocers on Penetration For the First Time: What’s Next?
According to the latest Wave 12 report of the dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT), mass-channel retailers have — for the first time — tied traditional grocers in terms of penetration, both reaching 79%.
The quarterly CTT debuted in April 2022, and since that time, mass retailer penetration has ticked upward by 5%, “representing a shift of millions of consumers changing shopping patterns,” per a press release.
“We are seeing that U.S. households are realigning where they shop based on affordability,” said Matt O’Grady, dunnhumby’s president of the Americas.
“What makes this different from the 2023 inflation spike is that consumer concern persists even as actual inflation moderates. The consumer is just not feeling it. Where they shop, how they use coupons, even how they adopt AI—everything aligns to saving money. When financial insecurity becomes this entrenched, grocery affordability becomes paramount, and shopping behavior doesn’t just snap back,” O’Grady added.
Other notable findings pulled from the data include:
- Walmart showed soaring strength, reaching a penetration rate of 72%: This represents an increase of 6% since December 2024, and with the next strongest entries being Dollar General (29%), Aldi (28%), Target (26%), Dollar Tree (25%), Costco (25%), Kroger (24%), and Amazon (20%), representative of the blue-and-yellow brand’s U.S. dominance on this metric. Four of these retailers saw penetration growth, with DG up 6%, Dollar Tree up 4%, and Kroger also up 4%, while the remainder stayed flat.
- The most important needs are split between physical and digital: Shoppers polled put forth a mixed bag of physical and digital asks from retailers, with “items always being in stock” and a clean and well-kept store bringing in 78% and 77% in terms of importance scores, respectively. Needs tied to it being “easy to shop on the website or app,” and the website or app itself being stable and reliable, both followed at 76% importance scores. Finally, the brick-and-mortar store being in a location convenient for each consumer brought up the rear of the top five, also notching a 76% importance score.
- Food insecurity abounds, and U.S. shoppers are exceedingly worried about food inflation: On the first, almost 40% of Americans between the ages of 45-54 were considered to be affected by food insecurity, as well as one-in-three families with children. The data also suggests that working-age adults deal with food insecurity at a rate four times higher than seniors aged 65-plus. On the second note, U.S. shoppers perceive the rate of food inflation to be at nearly 20% (19.6%), nearly nine-times the actual rate of 2.4% registered in December 2025.
Loyalty Cements Itself, Sustainability Shows a Needs vs. Outcomes Gulf, and AI Uptake Divides
Loyalty saw growing surges of strength with nearly half (47%) of shoppers redeeming coupons through in-house loyalty programs, an increase of 2.5% versus last quarters figures. Meanwhile, an increase in stated needs regarding sustainability didn’t translate to actual consumer spend, with all related behaviors (e.g. “read sustainability information on pack,” and “select sustainable products or packaging” both tumbling.
Two competing narratives closed out the dunnhumby data on the AI question. While 15% of U.S. shoppers indicated they’d used tools like ChatGPT to assist in their grocery shopping — and nearly double that number (28%) said they were likely to do so in the next year — the vast majority of consumers stated they either don’t see the need, or would prefer not, to use AI in this fashion.
BrainTrust
Nicholas Morine
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
With mass-channel retailers having tied traditional grocers in terms of penetration, what comes next? Will the trend continue?
What can traditional supermarkets do, if anything, to fend off the encroachment? Is there a lever being overlooked?
What other data points do you find intriguing?
Poll
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Collectively, mass channels may have reached parity with supermarkets for the first time. However, Walmart’s penetration has long been way above any single supermarket chain, and it has the highest market share in grocery. The impressive thing is that from this elevated base Walmart has been producing consistently good growth. Yes, this is partly because of a flight to value, including from higher income shoppers. But it is also a function of the fact that many mainstream supermarket chains (including Kroger) are pretty mediocre and are not giving customers enough reasons to stick with them.
Mass retailers achieving parity with traditional grocers in shopper penetration is not a short-term anomaly—it’s a structural shift driven by value, convenience, and scale. Recent data shows mass retailers now match traditional supermarkets at roughly 79% penetration, with players like Walmart reaching record levels as consumers continue to prioritize affordability and one-stop shopping. What comes next is likely continued share consolidation among the largest, most efficient operators. As long as economic pressure—even if perceived more than actual—remains part of the consumer mindset, mass retailers will continue to gain ground by combining sharp pricing, strong private brands, and increasingly sophisticated omnichannel capabilities.
For traditional supermarkets, the path forward isn’t to out-Walmart Walmart—it’s to differentiate where they can still win. Fresh, perimeter categories, service, local relevance, and experiential retail remain underleveraged advantages. There is also an opportunity to rethink loyalty beyond fuel points and discounts into something more personalized and ecosystem-driven. That said, many grocers still underinvest in digital integration, retail media, and data-driven personalization—areas where mass retailers are accelerating. The overlooked lever may not be price, but precision: using data, assortment, and localized merchandising to create a more compelling reason to choose a grocer beyond cost.
What’s most intriguing in the data is not just the growth of mass retailers, but the broadening of their appeal across income segments. Financial pressure is clearly a driver, but so are trust in private-label quality, improved convenience (pickup/delivery), and the perception that these retailers offer “good enough” across nearly every category. In that sense, this isn’t just a share shift—it’s a behavioral reset. The implication for the industry is clear: the winners will be those who combine value, differentiation, and seamless omnichannel execution, rather than relying on legacy positioning or format alone.
To Neil’s opinion and not to put too fine a point on it, Walmart is a master of execution – good assortments, at lower prices with higher in stock than the competitors, both online and instore. No wonder they are growing share.
Traditional supermarkets can defend against mass retailers by providing personalized offers, including coupons, deals and AI-driven solutions like recipes and meal planning.
It’s fascinating that 47% of shoppers redeem coupons from in-house loyalty programs. In recent years, mobile apps have shifted our in-store behavior by conditioning us to check for deals before we check out.
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Collectively, mass channels may have reached parity with supermarkets for the first time. However, Walmart’s penetration has long been way above any single supermarket chain, and it has the highest market share in grocery. The impressive thing is that from this elevated base Walmart has been producing consistently good growth. Yes, this is partly because of a flight to value, including from higher income shoppers. But it is also a function of the fact that many mainstream supermarket chains (including Kroger) are pretty mediocre and are not giving customers enough reasons to stick with them.
Mass retailers achieving parity with traditional grocers in shopper penetration is not a short-term anomaly—it’s a structural shift driven by value, convenience, and scale. Recent data shows mass retailers now match traditional supermarkets at roughly 79% penetration, with players like Walmart reaching record levels as consumers continue to prioritize affordability and one-stop shopping. What comes next is likely continued share consolidation among the largest, most efficient operators. As long as economic pressure—even if perceived more than actual—remains part of the consumer mindset, mass retailers will continue to gain ground by combining sharp pricing, strong private brands, and increasingly sophisticated omnichannel capabilities.
For traditional supermarkets, the path forward isn’t to out-Walmart Walmart—it’s to differentiate where they can still win. Fresh, perimeter categories, service, local relevance, and experiential retail remain underleveraged advantages. There is also an opportunity to rethink loyalty beyond fuel points and discounts into something more personalized and ecosystem-driven. That said, many grocers still underinvest in digital integration, retail media, and data-driven personalization—areas where mass retailers are accelerating. The overlooked lever may not be price, but precision: using data, assortment, and localized merchandising to create a more compelling reason to choose a grocer beyond cost.
What’s most intriguing in the data is not just the growth of mass retailers, but the broadening of their appeal across income segments. Financial pressure is clearly a driver, but so are trust in private-label quality, improved convenience (pickup/delivery), and the perception that these retailers offer “good enough” across nearly every category. In that sense, this isn’t just a share shift—it’s a behavioral reset. The implication for the industry is clear: the winners will be those who combine value, differentiation, and seamless omnichannel execution, rather than relying on legacy positioning or format alone.
To Neil’s opinion and not to put too fine a point on it, Walmart is a master of execution – good assortments, at lower prices with higher in stock than the competitors, both online and instore. No wonder they are growing share.
Traditional supermarkets can defend against mass retailers by providing personalized offers, including coupons, deals and AI-driven solutions like recipes and meal planning.
It’s fascinating that 47% of shoppers redeem coupons from in-house loyalty programs. In recent years, mobile apps have shifted our in-store behavior by conditioning us to check for deals before we check out.