January 27, 2026
Yumis/Depositphotos.com
Will Valentine’s Day Spend Break Records in 2026?
Cupid is getting ready to nock some arrows and let them fly as Valentine’s Day approaches. And, according to a January 27 press release issued by the National Retail Federation (NRF), it looks like U.S. consumers are excited to gift their loved ones, despite turbulence around today’s economic situation.
The top-line projection? Americans are expected to spend a record-high $29.1 billion for Valentine’s Day in 2026, beating last year’s record of $27.5 billion (notably, almost the same figure as 2020’s $27.4 billion, before the pandemic significantly impacted spending surrounding the holiday).
“Valentine’s Day is a cherished holiday that resonates with many Americans, as seen with expected record-breaking spending this year,” NRF VP of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said.
“Much of that growth is driven by middle- and high-income shoppers who are expanding their gift lists to include friends, co-workers and even pets in addition to loved ones,” she added.
Among the more notable data points pulled from the NRF Valentine’s Day report:
- More than half of U.S. consumers are feeling the love: Approximately 55% of Americans indicated plans to participate in Valentine’s Day this year. The overwhelming majority (83%) will be buying a gift for their romantic partner, with spend surrounding this activity anticipated to reach $14.5 billion. More than half of those buying in on Valentine’s Day this year (58%) will be picking something up for a family member, totaling projected $4.5 billion in spend.
- Others will be the beneficiary of Valentine’s Day cheer as well: Besides significant others and close family, about a third (33%) of Americans will be buying presents for friends (to the tune of an expected $2.4 billion), while just over one-quarter (27%) will be buying gifts for their children’s classmates and educators ($2.2 billion). Co-workers aren’t going to be left out in the cold — about one-fifth of U.S. consumers will be purchasing gifts for their work colleagues ($1.7 billion).
- The traditional gifts are still fashionable: The top gift categories include candy (56%), greeting cards and flowers (41% each), a date night out (39%), and jewelry (25%), with the latter category scooping up the bulk of the spending (nearly $7 billion). Date night places second in terms of cash layout ($6.3 billion), with clothing ($3.5 billion) and flowers ($3.1 billion) following next.
Also, pets are family, too: Setting a second record is the percentage of consumers (over one-third, or 35%) who stated intentions to pick up a Valentine’s Day gift for their pet.
“Valentine’s Day underscores the value of relationships, and for many people, the connection they share with their pets is an important one,” Prosper Insights & Analytics EVP of Strategy Phil Rist said.
“Whether it’s a dog, cat or other animal, consumers are looking to celebrate their pets this Valentine’s Day with a special toy, accessory or treat,” he added.
Online shopping leads the pack in terms of channel selection (38%) for the holiday, with department stores (35%), discount stores (30%), and specialty stores (21%) not too far behind.
Lastly, those electing not to celebrate Valentine’s Day still see a sizable cohort (31%) looking to splurge on something, be it a gift, self-care experience, or getting together with loved ones.
BrainTrust
Nicholas Morine
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Discussion Questions
Will Valentine’s Day spend in the U.S. meet, exceed, or fall below NRF projections, in your opinion? What factors are most likely to support your stance?
Which retail trends do you expect to show up for this Valentine’s Day sales event which may have been absent in years past?
Which retailers do you expect to do the best job of capitalizing on Valentine’s Day in 2026? Which may underperform?
Poll
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Potentially, yes. But there should be some caution placed around this forecast. First, as inflation is still kicking around, volume growth may not be quite as good as value growth. Second, consumers have become more selective about what they spend on during occasions like Valentine’s – some categories may see gains while others will see pullbacks. Foodservice and dining out is potentially one of the losers – which might actually be good for releasing more money to spend in core retail.
As we’ve seen with other holidays, Black Friday being a good example, holidays tend to keep expanding. Gifting has moved beyond romantic partners to friends, coworkers, kids’ classrooms, and pets, which spreads purchases across more categories. That broader definition of who and what we celebrate makes the record easier to hit.
I think Valentine’s Day spending in the U.S. is more likely to meet or modestly exceed NRF projections than fall short, even with continued cost pressures in the broader economy. The recent holiday season outperformed expectations, underscoring a remarkably resilient American consumer who has leaned into experiences and gifts despite inflation, ongoing wage pressures, and tariff-driven price increases on a range of discretionary goods. While tariffs have raised the cost of many imported products — particularly in categories like jewelry, fashion accessories, and electronics — much of that inventory has now cycled through retailers and is now depleted at pre-tariff stocking levels. That dynamic, coupled with leaner forward inventories, may constrain deep discounting early in the season. But we’re also seeing pent-up demand for experiences, dining, and curated gifting that tends to drive Valentine’s Day sales even when price inflation is a factor.
Looking at trends that could shape Valentine’s Day 2026, a few stand out compared with past years. First, experience-led gifting continues to gain share — restaurant reservations, travel-adjacent experiences, personalized wellness packages, and activity-based gifts that turn a holiday into a shared memory. Connected to that is bundling across categories (e.g., florals + dine-in vouchers + curated playlists or digital gifts), which signals a broader lifestyle celebration rather than a single purchased item. Second, omnichannel personalization — driven by data and AI — will play a bigger role in discovery and conversion, as retailers use purchase history and real-time signals to tailor gift ideas across digital and store touchpoints. Finally, as younger cohorts enter the market with different expectations around gifting, value storytelling and authenticity will influence assortment and promotion strategies more heavily than in past years.
When it comes to retailers best positioned to capitalize in 2026, those with robust omnichannel execution, strong assortment breadth, and resonant loyalty programs will have the edge. Big-box and mass merchants that combine price confidence with thoughtful curation — particularly for affordable luxury, experiences and personalized gifts — should perform well. Department stores that have successfully refreshed their relevant assortments and digital tools early in the season will also benefit, as will specialty florists and gift marketplaces that marry convenience with emotional appeal. Conversely, retailers that rely heavily on imported discretionary goods without strong value narratives or inventory visibility may underperform if sticker shock dampens demand. Smaller independents and boutiques with tight inventory or weaker digital pathways could struggle to convert early interest into sales in a compressed season.
In balance, the Valentine’s Day outlook for 2026 reflects a resilient consumer willing to spend, but one still sensitive to price and value perceptions amid tariff-inflated costs. Retailers that deliver relevant experiences, seamless omnichannel journeys, and curated value-driven assortments will be best positioned to capture that demand.
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Potentially, yes. But there should be some caution placed around this forecast. First, as inflation is still kicking around, volume growth may not be quite as good as value growth. Second, consumers have become more selective about what they spend on during occasions like Valentine’s – some categories may see gains while others will see pullbacks. Foodservice and dining out is potentially one of the losers – which might actually be good for releasing more money to spend in core retail.
As we’ve seen with other holidays, Black Friday being a good example, holidays tend to keep expanding. Gifting has moved beyond romantic partners to friends, coworkers, kids’ classrooms, and pets, which spreads purchases across more categories. That broader definition of who and what we celebrate makes the record easier to hit.
I think Valentine’s Day spending in the U.S. is more likely to meet or modestly exceed NRF projections than fall short, even with continued cost pressures in the broader economy. The recent holiday season outperformed expectations, underscoring a remarkably resilient American consumer who has leaned into experiences and gifts despite inflation, ongoing wage pressures, and tariff-driven price increases on a range of discretionary goods. While tariffs have raised the cost of many imported products — particularly in categories like jewelry, fashion accessories, and electronics — much of that inventory has now cycled through retailers and is now depleted at pre-tariff stocking levels. That dynamic, coupled with leaner forward inventories, may constrain deep discounting early in the season. But we’re also seeing pent-up demand for experiences, dining, and curated gifting that tends to drive Valentine’s Day sales even when price inflation is a factor.
Looking at trends that could shape Valentine’s Day 2026, a few stand out compared with past years. First, experience-led gifting continues to gain share — restaurant reservations, travel-adjacent experiences, personalized wellness packages, and activity-based gifts that turn a holiday into a shared memory. Connected to that is bundling across categories (e.g., florals + dine-in vouchers + curated playlists or digital gifts), which signals a broader lifestyle celebration rather than a single purchased item. Second, omnichannel personalization — driven by data and AI — will play a bigger role in discovery and conversion, as retailers use purchase history and real-time signals to tailor gift ideas across digital and store touchpoints. Finally, as younger cohorts enter the market with different expectations around gifting, value storytelling and authenticity will influence assortment and promotion strategies more heavily than in past years.
When it comes to retailers best positioned to capitalize in 2026, those with robust omnichannel execution, strong assortment breadth, and resonant loyalty programs will have the edge. Big-box and mass merchants that combine price confidence with thoughtful curation — particularly for affordable luxury, experiences and personalized gifts — should perform well. Department stores that have successfully refreshed their relevant assortments and digital tools early in the season will also benefit, as will specialty florists and gift marketplaces that marry convenience with emotional appeal. Conversely, retailers that rely heavily on imported discretionary goods without strong value narratives or inventory visibility may underperform if sticker shock dampens demand. Smaller independents and boutiques with tight inventory or weaker digital pathways could struggle to convert early interest into sales in a compressed season.
In balance, the Valentine’s Day outlook for 2026 reflects a resilient consumer willing to spend, but one still sensitive to price and value perceptions amid tariff-inflated costs. Retailers that deliver relevant experiences, seamless omnichannel journeys, and curated value-driven assortments will be best positioned to capture that demand.