Can Competitors Sway Customers Away From Walmart, Amazon, and Target This Back-to-School Shopping Season?

With back-to-school shopping season in full swing for many, the big three retailers in the space — Amazon, Walmart, and Target — are eying what promises to be a significant amount of spend this year, according to analysts.

According to a recent report issued by JLL on the subject, parents plan to spend a whopping 21.8% more on BTS shopping in 2025, a considerable uptick well outpacing the YoY inflation rate of 3.4%.

And the results are widespread across every major income bracket, with every economic demographic suggesting increased spend this year — although wealthier households (those earning more than $150,000 per year) are upping their budgets most significantly (by 30%).

Walmart, Amazon, and Target Dominate the Current Back-to-School Shopping Market

The elephant in the room, per JLL's survey data: Walmart, Amazon, and Target convincingly hold the top three spots concerning the question of where those polled planned to shop BTS this year.

Walmart topped the charts at 46.4%, Amazon took second place at 35.4%, and Target came in a close third at 32.6%.

The next closest retailer? Costco, at 6.5%.

Costco was followed by Old Navy (3.8%), Dollar General (2.8%), Dollar Tree (2.4%), Staples (2.1%), Macy's (2%), and Office Depot (2%).

Other interesting findings included:

• Almost 90% of parents surveyed will interact with brick-and-mortar stores during their BTS shopping.
• For the first time in years, the most popular time to start back-to-school shopping was indicated as May or earlier, rather than August.
• While those households earning less than $50,000 per year plan to spend 52.8% on discretionary products, those earning between $50,000 and $150,000 plan to spend 64.9% on the same, and that figure jumps to 70.9% for households bringing in more than $150,000 annually.

While BTS Spend Increases, Saving Money Is Still on the Table

The results also indicated that while overall BTS spending was set to tick upward in a serious way, shoppers remained keen on saving money when the opportunity presented itself.

Lower-income households were most likely to look for sales and deals (61.5%), while parents earning more than $150,000 were more interested in reducing the total number of items purchased to trim back the BTS bill.

Lower-income households were more likely to spend less than the average (~28.4%), cut budget due to inflationary pressure, seek coupons and deals, start shopping in July and August, shop at two to three retailers, and shop at mass merchandisers, dollar, or thrift stores.

Higher-income households, on the other hand, were more likely to spend considerably more than the average, and their own spend last year; buy private-label products to cut costs; shop at a mall or use BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store); shop at six or more different retailers; shop early, or at least start in June; shop at bookstores, home goods, and department stores; and, as mentioned earlier, drop more spend on discretionary items.

Interestingly, moms were more likely to search for sales, buy fewer items, and reuse existing products; by contrast, dads were more likely to buy secondhand goods.

A separate report on back-to-school spending put forth by ICSC suggested that reusing existing supplies was gaining traction more broadly, with 28% of respondents to its survey indicating as much.