What Might Be in Store for Google After the Monopolist Ruling?

In early 2023, the Justice Department and several states filed a civil antitrust lawsuit against Google, accusing it of monopolizing digital advertising technology in violation of the Sherman Act. Nearly two years later, the case has concluded with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruling that Google used exclusive contracts to dominate the search market and block competitors like Microsoft’s Bing and DuckDuckGo.

U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta determined that Google violated antitrust laws by maintaining its monopoly through these exclusive agreements. He wrote on Monday, “After having carefully considered and weighed the witness testimony and evidence, the court reaches the following conclusion: Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly. It has violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act.”

The court has not yet decided on penalties for Google, and the company will still have a chance to appeal, but according to CNN, it will likely have to deal with a fine. However, Vanderbilt University law professor Rebecca Allensworth told CNN that in U.S. antitrust cases, fines often have little impact on large, profitable companies like Google. They are usually just a "drop in the bucket," she said.

According to coverage in May by PBS, Allensworth explained that the result of a ruling against the tech company might make it so that "Google's no longer allowed to enjoy this default status on our devices." In this case, the court could require Google to introduce a "choice screen" that informs users about alternative search engines. "The question then becomes, OK, so if there is a choice screen, will consumers really switch away?" Allensworth remarked.

In another more recent prediction, The Verge stated that "Google’s fate will be determined in the next phase of proceedings, which could result in anything from a mandate to stop certain business practices to a breakup of Google’s search business."

Moreover, in March, The Associated Press shared news about how European Union regulators launched investigations into Google, Meta, and Apple, marking the first cases under a comprehensive new law called the Digital Markets Act (DMA) aimed at preventing Big Tech companies from dominating digital markets.

The DMA mandates that "gatekeeper" companies must avoid practices that lock consumers into their ecosystems and must allow app developers to direct users to cheaper external options. The European Commission has received complaints that these companies’ compliance efforts are insufficient, particularly regarding restrictions on app promotions and favoritism in search results. Industry groups have criticized the timing of the investigation, suggesting it may be premature. Google has stated that it has made significant changes to align with the DMA and will continue to defend its approach.

Google is also seeing competition from Apple as the company recently released ads that take jabs at Google Chrome. Per Tom's Guide, "While it doesn’t overtly tell people to stop using Chrome, it is a rather blatant shot at Google’s browser for the ton of tracking cookies it uses — claiming that Safari is 'a browser that’s actually private.'"

According to Digiday, law expert Eric Posner theorized that although many advocate for a complete breakup of Google, or a "structural remedy" in legal terms, he believes this outcome is unlikely. Posner noted that courts are generally hesitant to support the breakup of defendants.

In the case of a possible breakup of Google, the DOJ would have to persuade a judge that the complete breakup of the company is "the only realistic resolution to a particular monopolistic practice a defendant has been deemed guilty of. "

As the antitrust case against Google unfolds, significant questions about the tech giant's future remain. Despite the court's finding that Google used exclusive agreements to dominate the search market and various online advertising markets, the immediate impact may be limited to fines, which might not substantially affect such a lucrative company. The potential for more drastic measures, like losing default status on devices or even a breakup, remains uncertain.

As regulators in the European Union continue to scrutinize Google under new laws and competitors like Apple intensify their challenges, the tech landscape is poised for transformation. The ultimate outcome will depend on whether the DOJ can convince the courts of the need for substantial restructuring or if alternative remedies will suffice. With Google's dominance facing increased scrutiny, the future could see significant changes in how we interact with technology and the internet.