May 12, 2025
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Is Guidance Irrelevant Amid Tariff Uncertainty?
Crocs, Logitech, and Mattel are among consumer-focused companies that have withdrawn their forward-looking guidance due to uncertainty created by the tariff quagmire.
Matteo Anversa, CFO at Logitech, the Swiss-American computer parts maker, said on a quarterly call on April 29, “We are not immune to the tariff uncertainty and overall volatility in the current macroeconomic environment. Our ability to provide a long-term outlook is predicated upon a modicum of stability within the broader economy; without this stability, it’s virtually impossible to provide an outlook that looks beyond the next quarter. Hence, why we withdrew our outlook for the fiscal year ahead.”
Anthony DiSilvestro, Mattel’s CFO, said on a quarterly call last week, “Given the volatile macroeconomic environment and evolving U.S. tariff situation, it is hard to predict consumer spending and our U.S. sales in the remainder of the year and holiday season, and we are therefore pausing our full year 2025 guidance until we have sufficient visibility.”
On an analyst call last week, Susan Healy, Crocs’ CFO, said, “The primary reason for withdrawing guidance is that at this point, it is extremely difficult to quantify and project the financial outcome of tariffs and the related potential for softer consumer demand across the industry.”
Others in the retail and consumer space similarly abandoning their guidance in recent weeks include Character Group, the British toymaker; Diageo, the British spirits maker; Spin Master, the Canadian toymaker; as well as other U.S.-based firms: Masco Corp, the maker of facets and other house improvement products; Carter’s, the children’s apparel maker; and footwear makers Skechers and Steve Madden.
A number of bellwethers in other industries have also pulled guidance, including UPS, General Motors, Ford, and Delta Air Lines.
A study led by researchers at the University of Toronto found that moves by companies to withdraw guidance during the pandemic resulted in “abnormally large trading volumes and high analyst forecast dispersion,” but they “do not harm stock prices or the level of analyst earnings forecasts.”
“I certainly understand the instinct,” Jack McCullough, founder of the CFO Leadership Council, recently told CFO Brew of the higher-than-normal number of corporations withdrawing guidance. “There’s too many variables. If some things all go the right way, you might have a great year, but if only two of them do, it’s a different outcome.”
Nonetheless, the majority of firms reporting first-quarter results that traditionally offer guidance have continued to do so. Some maintained or even raised guidance, while several lowered expectations, including Colgate-Palmolive, Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, Chipotle, Yeti, and Pandora. Reasons for lowered guidance included the tariff’s impact on costs or related supply chain disruption. Some have cited weakening consumer demand tied to tariff-related anxiety over higher prices.
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Shep Hyken
Chief Amazement Officer, Shepard Presentations, LLC
Jeff Sward
Founding Partner, Merchandising Metrics
Mark Ryski
Founder, CEO & Author, HeadCount Corporation
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
Should publicly held retailers and consumer brands withdraw guidance due to uncertainties created by the tariff situation?
What message, if any, does pulling guidance send to employees or consumers?
Poll
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Guidance is not irrelevant, but it is subject to a lot of uncertainty – that’s why a lot of retailers have pulled their forecasts. When tariff policy changes with the tides, it is rather hard to plot a certain course!
“Guidance” is just that: a tool…one among many. And it has always communicated more than mere numbers: caution, bullishness….in this case, perhaps, condemnation. Remember that song: “you say it best when you say nothing at all…”?
Maintaining guidance during uncertainties can lead to inaccurate forecasts, misleading investors, and harming the company’s credibility. It may also cause poor decisions based on outdated information and increase pressure on management to meet unrealistic goals, impacting business performance.
On the other hand, withdrawing guidance demonstrates transparency by acknowledging uncertainties and avoiding the spread of misleading information. This approach builds trust with employees and consumers by showing honesty and adaptability to change.
The tariffs are huge. The tariffs are on pause. The tariffs are permanent. The tariffs are on pause. The tariffs are huge. The tariffs have been reduced.
No one can proceed confidently in this environment, so it makes no to sense attempt to predict the future. I feel for companies attempting to navigate these waters.
Earnings guidance has always been a bit of a nuanced dance between the company and Wall Street. Providing forward guidance gives shareholders a sense of how well companies are managed and planning ahead. The current state of economic affairs and fast changing trade policy makes this virtually impossible for companies that are most impacted by tariffs. But even if the company isn’t directly impacted by tariffs, consumers overall will be, and that will have impacts that are hard to predict. I sympathize with companies trying to navigate the guidance waters. How can companies project results and issue guidance when there is significant disruption to basic supply chain dynamics and input costs? Furthermore, the situation continues to change almost daily, which makes issuing guidance almost impossible. It’s not surprising that companies are increasingly not providing guidance. While this may not give shareholders, employees or consumers much confidence about what to expect, it’s reasonable given the circumstances.
Tariffs do throw a wrench into the system, but guidance is still useful to signal where attention may be needed and how consumer trends are impacting business. We were smart enough to give some grace to forecasts during Covid, I’m confident the business world will understand the volatility impact of these tariff year(s).
I struggle a bit to figure out how to balance guidance and transparency. Pulling guidance is yet another sign that the world is in a very unusual place right now. This Administration has shown that it will punish retailers who try to be transparent about the impact of policy on prices and their customers’ budgets. On the other hand, given the volatility of the macroeconomic environment, there are real concerns that any forecast will be out of date and could cause even more chaos in their investor communities.
I would look for retailers and others to be open about the impact that some of the policy decisions are going to have on their business, good and bad. They need to resist the narrative that putting a line item for tariff charges in front of their customers when they check out is somehow being hostile or disloyal. And, they need to be very clear about the reason they are withdrawing their guidance- tariffs, policies, and whatever else might come along to affect their business.
The unpredictability of tariff policies and the economy can make forecasting difficult. We can only hope the predictions are correct, but we must realize they are based on trends and what we know now. When a national or world event takes place, things change—sometimes quickly. That’s why agility is important. Perhaps more frequent reports should come out, creating a clearer, short-term view of what to expect.
Guidance is not only not irrelevant, it’s probably more important than ever. Which makes it highly problematic, if completely understandable, when a company has to withdraw guidance. Withdrawing guidance is still providing guidance, of sorts. It’s basically saying, “Life is just too chaotic right now for us to be able to provide guidance on future performance with any real specificity or confidence. We’re going to navigate as best we can, and we’ll keep you up to date.” When more than a couple of companies in more than a couple of industries say that, they are giving guidance to the administration to “Please do your !@#$%^&* job and stop messing with the entire global economy…!!! Give us something to work with so we can plan and execute with some level of confidence that the rug won’t be pulled out from under us…again.”
Guidance under the best of circumstances is informed guesswork and the setting of expectations. How would anybody do that these days? We have one week scenarios, one month scenarios, 90 day scenarios. It’s as though we are driving along at highway speeds on familiar terrain and all of a sudden the we are in unfamiliar terrain and the navigation screen only shows the road for a quarter of a mile ahead. We can’t zoom out to see anything past a quarter mile. There’s no choice but to slow down and be prepared to react to the next bend in the road. And then hope the terrain and navigation system come back on line sooner than later.
When established companies pause guidance, it’s a clear sign of how tariff uncertainty is clouding strategic visibility. In a climate this volatile, stepping back from long-term forecasts may be the most responsible move. After all, guidance is only useful when it’s grounded in some level of predictability.
I can’t predict a thing in the current environment. We have a 90 day pause….and????? Our president is accepting the gift of a 747 which he is determined to keep. I don’t know how to predict anything
Though I will say that the Rite-Aid execs who went after me because I asked “how do you know outside theft is the source of your shrink?” Had been fed an interesting storybook
Guidance communication messaging – the ultimate in “these things might happen, or that could happen depending on several things not in our control, but of which we hope to maintain or get control if given good circumstances, thus we hope to see said results… somewhat”.
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Guidance is not irrelevant, but it is subject to a lot of uncertainty – that’s why a lot of retailers have pulled their forecasts. When tariff policy changes with the tides, it is rather hard to plot a certain course!
“Guidance” is just that: a tool…one among many. And it has always communicated more than mere numbers: caution, bullishness….in this case, perhaps, condemnation. Remember that song: “you say it best when you say nothing at all…”?
Maintaining guidance during uncertainties can lead to inaccurate forecasts, misleading investors, and harming the company’s credibility. It may also cause poor decisions based on outdated information and increase pressure on management to meet unrealistic goals, impacting business performance.
On the other hand, withdrawing guidance demonstrates transparency by acknowledging uncertainties and avoiding the spread of misleading information. This approach builds trust with employees and consumers by showing honesty and adaptability to change.
The tariffs are huge. The tariffs are on pause. The tariffs are permanent. The tariffs are on pause. The tariffs are huge. The tariffs have been reduced.
No one can proceed confidently in this environment, so it makes no to sense attempt to predict the future. I feel for companies attempting to navigate these waters.
Earnings guidance has always been a bit of a nuanced dance between the company and Wall Street. Providing forward guidance gives shareholders a sense of how well companies are managed and planning ahead. The current state of economic affairs and fast changing trade policy makes this virtually impossible for companies that are most impacted by tariffs. But even if the company isn’t directly impacted by tariffs, consumers overall will be, and that will have impacts that are hard to predict. I sympathize with companies trying to navigate the guidance waters. How can companies project results and issue guidance when there is significant disruption to basic supply chain dynamics and input costs? Furthermore, the situation continues to change almost daily, which makes issuing guidance almost impossible. It’s not surprising that companies are increasingly not providing guidance. While this may not give shareholders, employees or consumers much confidence about what to expect, it’s reasonable given the circumstances.
Tariffs do throw a wrench into the system, but guidance is still useful to signal where attention may be needed and how consumer trends are impacting business. We were smart enough to give some grace to forecasts during Covid, I’m confident the business world will understand the volatility impact of these tariff year(s).
I struggle a bit to figure out how to balance guidance and transparency. Pulling guidance is yet another sign that the world is in a very unusual place right now. This Administration has shown that it will punish retailers who try to be transparent about the impact of policy on prices and their customers’ budgets. On the other hand, given the volatility of the macroeconomic environment, there are real concerns that any forecast will be out of date and could cause even more chaos in their investor communities.
I would look for retailers and others to be open about the impact that some of the policy decisions are going to have on their business, good and bad. They need to resist the narrative that putting a line item for tariff charges in front of their customers when they check out is somehow being hostile or disloyal. And, they need to be very clear about the reason they are withdrawing their guidance- tariffs, policies, and whatever else might come along to affect their business.
The unpredictability of tariff policies and the economy can make forecasting difficult. We can only hope the predictions are correct, but we must realize they are based on trends and what we know now. When a national or world event takes place, things change—sometimes quickly. That’s why agility is important. Perhaps more frequent reports should come out, creating a clearer, short-term view of what to expect.
Guidance is not only not irrelevant, it’s probably more important than ever. Which makes it highly problematic, if completely understandable, when a company has to withdraw guidance. Withdrawing guidance is still providing guidance, of sorts. It’s basically saying, “Life is just too chaotic right now for us to be able to provide guidance on future performance with any real specificity or confidence. We’re going to navigate as best we can, and we’ll keep you up to date.” When more than a couple of companies in more than a couple of industries say that, they are giving guidance to the administration to “Please do your !@#$%^&* job and stop messing with the entire global economy…!!! Give us something to work with so we can plan and execute with some level of confidence that the rug won’t be pulled out from under us…again.”
Guidance under the best of circumstances is informed guesswork and the setting of expectations. How would anybody do that these days? We have one week scenarios, one month scenarios, 90 day scenarios. It’s as though we are driving along at highway speeds on familiar terrain and all of a sudden the we are in unfamiliar terrain and the navigation screen only shows the road for a quarter of a mile ahead. We can’t zoom out to see anything past a quarter mile. There’s no choice but to slow down and be prepared to react to the next bend in the road. And then hope the terrain and navigation system come back on line sooner than later.
When established companies pause guidance, it’s a clear sign of how tariff uncertainty is clouding strategic visibility. In a climate this volatile, stepping back from long-term forecasts may be the most responsible move. After all, guidance is only useful when it’s grounded in some level of predictability.
I can’t predict a thing in the current environment. We have a 90 day pause….and????? Our president is accepting the gift of a 747 which he is determined to keep. I don’t know how to predict anything
Though I will say that the Rite-Aid execs who went after me because I asked “how do you know outside theft is the source of your shrink?” Had been fed an interesting storybook
Guidance communication messaging – the ultimate in “these things might happen, or that could happen depending on several things not in our control, but of which we hope to maintain or get control if given good circumstances, thus we hope to see said results… somewhat”.