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April 23, 2025
How Will Weight-Loss Drugs Reshape Grocery Aisles?
Research continues to show users of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are cutting back on processed foods, but food makers still largely see minimal impact from the weight-loss drug craze.
Among the recent studies, Cornell University and Numerator research released in December found that households with at least one member on a GLP-1 drug saw a drop in grocery spending by 5.5% within six months of starting the medication, with higher-income households reducing spending by 8.6%.
The declines were driven by “large decreases in purchases of calorie-dense, processed items,” with notable decreases in sweet and salty foods and snacks. The declines were only partly offset by a “modest” increase in spending on fresh produce and yogurt.
Researcher advised, “Companies will likely reconsider product formulations, portion sizes, and packaging strategies, as consumers on GLP-1 medications are expected to favor smaller portions and convenient, nutrient-dense options such as single-serving or portion-controlled items like fresh produce, yogurt, and nutrition bars.”
A study from PwC released last October found that, on average, GLP-1 users spent about 11% less on most food categories, with the biggest cutbacks in sweet and salty snacks and baked goods. Among GLP-1 users surveyed, 56% indicated they made healthier food choices during treatment, 47% ate smaller portions, and 29% reduced binge eating and drinking.
The survey also found that 8% to 10% of Americans are currently taking GLP-1s, while 30% to 35% are interested in using them. PwC advised, “Promotion of ‘functional’ food by clearly communicating nutritional or other health benefits will be more important than ever.”
A just-released Acosta Group study found that 84% of GLP-1 users have been satisfied overall with their weight-loss results. GLP-1 users showed increased interest in produce, chicken, unsweetened waters and seltzers, protein/nutrition bars, and yogurts.
Jami McDermid, president of CROSSMARK Sales Agency, a division of Acosta, said, “As use of this medication is extended and expanded for weight loss and other health advocacy, there is an opportunity to do much more, including product development, packaging, online and in-store merchandising, education, and promotion.”
Recent articles in Bloomberg and the New York Times note that many food industry giants are introducing meals marketed toward the GLP-1 community, including calling out nutritional values and protein aligned to weight-loss goals. However, many publicly continue to downplay the disruption from GLP-1 drugs.
At the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY), Dirk Van de Put, CEO of Mondelez International, predicted that GLP-1 drugs will only impact 1% to 1.5% of Mondelez’s volume in 10 years, with insurance coverage and affordability slowing adoption. He said, according to Food Business News, “The evolution will be slow, and we will have time to react to it like we have had to deal with a lot of different things like trans fats. We’ll adapt.”
Discussion Questions
Do you see minimal or major disruption to America’s diet and grocery purchases tied to the momentum behind GLP-1 drugs?
Will the opportunity for food brands related to weight-loss drugs offset the threat of reduced food consumption?
Poll
Loading …BrainTrust
David Spear
President, Retail, OrderlyMeds
Georganne Bender
Principal, KIZER & BENDER Speaking
James Tenser
Retail Tech Marketing Strategist | B2B Expert Storytelling™ Guru | President, VSN Media LLC
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Weight loss drugs change what people buy in grocery stores. One issue is the reduced calorie intake, which squeezes volumes and makes the environment way more competitive for brands. Another is the composition of what is bought: certain categories, like sweet and salty snacks and alcohol, see an erosion of interest; others, like supplements and proteins, see heightened demand. If and when weight loss drugs become more common, this will disrupt things like space allocation, product mix, layout, and point-of-sale mechanics of grocery stores.
I wonder if there was a change in buying habits when stomach stapling and gastric bypass surgery became big in the 90s?
I think there must have been, but I guess that is a much more drastic intervention so was less prevalent. Also, from what I have seen, as well as reducing the amount people eat, weight loss drugs also change what people eat and crave. They even cause changes in attitudes to gambling, alcohol, shopping, and so forth because they shift the brain’s attitudes to those things. So there is a deeper psychological impact.
I think you are 100% right. Surgery was invasive and recovery is a challenge. These drugs (for now) are easy to get (if expensive) and administer.
Obviously “major” and “minor” are subjective terms – ask any company if a sustained 10% reduction in revenue is “minor”, and you’ll likely hear uproarious laughter (nervous, or not) – but I don’t think we’ll see zero impact. It’s hard to go beyond that without knowing how widespread the usage of the GLP’s will become; and I’d also caution against extrapolating blindly: users are likely more motivated to modify their behavior than non-users – translation: the reason for the reduction in consumption may not be entrely due to the drugs themselves – and the results may diminish over time.
The point about results diminishing over time is interesting. From what I have seen from our (admittedly limited) research into this is that there is a moderation in behavior the longer the drugs are taken. Of course, all of this is relatively new so there are a lot of things yet to be discovered…
I was really thinking more of the profile of the users “moderating” – i.e. progressively less-and-less motivated people would begin to use the blockers and not follow thru on additional dietary changes; admittedly one of the presumed benfits of these drugs is they modify your behavior for you, but I’m thinking conscious behavioral changes play a part as well. (even if it’s something as basic as remembering to take the pills regularly!)
I think the big changes in how we shop for groceries will come when more people can afford GLP-1 drugs or when insurance agrees to pay for them.
But as the CEO of Mondelez International said, evolution will be slow and the industry will have time to react.
GLP-1 drugs will continue to shift the grocery shopping spend. But it will be nothing like the large swings we saw during the Covid era. Grocers will see a portion of the weight loss drug shoppers increase the consumption of foods to help them maintain target ratios from reduced sugar products, meat, fish, veggies and supplements. For grocers, this is a great opportunity to further communicate the health benefits, sourcing and growing of their freshest and healthiest products.
No doubt hypotheses and contingencies about the market impact of GLP-1 medications are being debated in the boardrooms of every packaged food producer in North America.
I’d imagine snack-foods marketers may be most concerned, since the weight-loss meds are reputed to moderate the “mindless munching” behaviors that have been a cornerstone of sales. But frozen prepared foods, baked goods, pasta and breakfast cereal makers would likely expect some impact too.
Strategic planners will look at various studies like those cited here to try to determine which consumer segments are adopting GLP-1s most enthusiastically. My bet is that the breakout will be more along economic lines, rather than health considerations.
Another important question is how long will the infatuation last? Hearkening back to the “fat-fear” days of the early 1990s we may recall that what seemed like a sea change in consumption habits (remember SnackWell’s?) turned out to be a relatively brief chapter.
Will GLP-1 drugs remain widely available, affordable, and provably safe enough for use by large numbers of consumers? Will side effects of long-term exposure come to light? Or will the novelty wear off as users grow fatigued with their drug-supported lifestyles?
To make heads spin a little faster: CPGs may also need to weigh the current backlash against highly-refined and artificial food ingredients. Compound or confound? We’ll soon see.
I started Ozempic about 8 weeks ago as part of my type II diabetes treatment regimen, and have been pleased so far with the results (only minor side effects, but a 9-pound reduction!) One part of the journey is learning to re-train my eyes on portion size and plate size, as my body will let me know for hours afterward if I’ve consumed too much. Another is leveling out my intake of carbs and protein through the day, so a smaller breakfast but adding a Kodiak Bar at mid-morning to keep blood sugar steady. The final part is the almost complete elimination of that “mindless munching”, especially after supper. Food still tastes good; if anything I am seeking sharper and richer flavors & textures but just smaller amounts. I even stopped by McDonalds for lunch today but bought less than I would have previously. My doctor says if the weight loss continues at this reasonable pace, I may be able to discontinue Metformin, so that is a tradeoff I am looking forward to!
As weight loss drugs grow their impact will be on quantities & categories of the products noted in the article. GLP-1 scripts are just beginning their market ascent.
The big question is how many will regain weight and resume old diets after stopping the medication. Research is limited but does indicate that some regain weight without an exercise regimen.
However, as some cycle off, it appears that even more are starting the regimen. CPG companies should not underestimate this trend.
It is likely that as GLP-1 drugs gain popularity there will be a significant shift towards healthier eating habits as consumers become more concerned about their health and weight management.
Consequently, fresh produce, lean proteins, and other nutritious foods may be in greater demand in grocery stores. Additionally, brands may respond by offering healthier products and more transparent labeling in order to attract health-conscious consumers.
The food industry can innovate by creating new products that cater to the dietary preferences of health-conscious consumers, such as products that are low in fat, high in protein, or plant-based.
To capture niche markets, they can also create convenient, ready-to-eat meals that cater to specific dietary needs, such as keto or gluten-free. Additionally, working with nutritionists and fitness influencers to obtain endorsements can assist brands in building trust and reaching a wider audience of people who are interested in maintaining a healthy lifestyle.
As demand for GLP-1s continue to grow in the US market, there will be a natural gravitation toward select grocery items such as fiber, protein and hydration that complement these drug regimens. Importantly, small pack sizes from CPG’s will play well with these consumers who are looking for commensurate portion control sizes. Drug chains and grocery stores with pharmacies selling GLP-1s should take note and work with their partners to develop creative strategies that address these issues.
The opportunity created by consumer behavior tied to any health-focused initiative, in this case improved weight management, shifts how grocers and brands must respond. This will continue to be the case and it will always be disruptive. The problem is that too many do nothing and a large number over-react. The key is to strategically adapt to the changing mindset, shopper needs, and consumer trends.