May 18, 2026
jetcityimage2/Depositphotos.com
In Off-Price Retail, Who Has the Most Interesting Recent Traffic Story?
With TJX and Ross Dress for Less poised to soon release their most up-to-date earnings, Placer.ai’s The Anchor dropped a slew of data surrounding off-price retail traffic — and some of the findings are ripe for discussion.
The outlet’s Lila Margalit noted one particular finding up front: Off-price as a whole is seeing a growing advantage versus department stores when it comes to foot traffic.
“Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores. The category captured 65.7% of combined visit share in Q1 2026, up from 62.2% in Q1 2025 and just 56.2% in Q1 2022. These steady, multi-year gains underscore a structural shift in where consumers are choosing to shop – one that continues to accelerate as value becomes a central decision driver,” Margalit wrote.
Ross Dress for Less Sees Traffic Surge During Q1
Ross Dress for Less was the runaway victor, nabbing a massive 18% overall improvement in same-store visit growth throughout the first quarter of 2026 versus year-prior figures. Average visits per location was also up (at 14.1% YoY growth) for Q1 2026, with January (up 8.2%), February (up a whopping 21.4% YoY), March (up 15.4%), and April (up 13.5%) all seeing huge visit growth for Ross.
Margalit suggested that Ross was frequently able to undercut even its off-price competitors with its “no-frills” approach, making it an attractive prospect to buyers who are continually trading down as economic pressures mount. Also, with no e-comm channel to speak of, all customer interest is funneled to brick-and-mortar locations.
TJ Maxx and Marshalls See Modest Visit Growth, But Recent (and Perhaps Worrisome) Softness
As many analysts continue to raise the target price of TJX Companies based on previous performance and future prospects, most of the data presented by Margalit appears to jive with those takes.
- On overall visits, TJ Maxx saw 2.5% growth in Q1 2026 YoY against Marshalls’ 3.3%.
- TJMaxx (up 1.7%) and Marshalls (up 1.6%) were nearly identical on average visits per location for the quarter.
- However, while both TJ Maxx and Marshalls were up in January (up 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively) and especially February (up 5.8% and 6.6%), March (down 1.5% and 0.8%, respectively) and April (up 0.4% and down 1.2%, respectively) show signs of growing foot traffic challenges.
“Marmaxx’s [a portmanteau of TJ Maxx and Marshalls] higher price points and more brand-forward assortment likely make it more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks than Ross – while its e-commerce presence could also be absorbing demand as higher gas prices shift some shopping online,” Margalit suggested.
Burlington’s Aggressive Store Expansion Drives Overall Traffic as Per-Location Traffic Falls
With Burlington engaged in an aggressive store expansion plan which looks to see 100 store openings in 2026 — and 26 stores in May alone — it may come as little surprise that while overall foot traffic improved by an impressive 7.7% during Q1 2026 YoY, per-store visit figures fell by 2.1%.
With Burlington traffic yo-yoing throughout the months comprising Q1 — relatively flat (down 0.1%) in January, up 3.9% in February, down by the same 3.9% in March, and down 2.9% in April — it looks like there may be opportunity to further fine tune its new elevation game plan.
“The company’s elevation strategy — focused on improving assortment quality with more recognizable brands and higher quality products — has delivered solid results in recent quarters. But with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, the elevated assortment may be temporarily finding a smaller audience — a dynamic likely amplified by Burlington’s more value-oriented customer base compared to peers,” Margalit concluded.
BrainTrust
Cathy Hotka
Principal, Cathy Hotka & Associates
Jeff Sward
Founding Partner, Merchandising Metrics
Bhargav Trivedi
Solutions Architect, Bloomreach
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
Do you believe off-price retail still has a runway for even stronger growth as multiple macroeconomic headwinds continue to pressure U.S. consumers? Where’s the turning point, in your opinion?
Of the major retailers represented, which has the most opportunity to differentiate itself even further within the off-price category? What moves need to be made in the near future?
Regarding the consistent fall of department store foot traffic, how much can be attributed to loss to e-comm channels versus overall loss of traffic to off-pricers?
Poll
Loading …
I’ll always vote for TJX because they understand and appreciate great merchandising.That’s a big differentiator, and the reason that their revenues are so high.
Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores
This line – which I believe was the original ‘head’ before the article got upgraded to the Forum – to me is the real story…more than the jockeying for position in the horse race (aka: QonQ changes of individual sellers)
Together with the similar pattern in grocery – which would look even worse if WalMart is included in the discount category – we seem to be seeing a collapse in conventional retailing….or at least the players that have long dominated it.
Having worked on large-scale retail commerce transformation initiatives during my time supporting Big Lots, this trend feels less cyclical and more behavioral. Consumers are increasingly prioritizing value, immediacy, and discovery over polished department store experiences. That’s why off-price continues gaining momentum even as broader retail traffic softens.
Burlington Stores likely has the biggest differentiation opportunity if it can better connect localized inventory, AI-driven allocation, and faster merchandising feedback loops without losing its value-first identity. Department stores are certainly losing trips to e-commerce, but off-pricers are winning because they still create the urgency and “treasure hunt” experience that digital channels struggle to replicate consistently.
The foot traffic data might be accurate, but some of the explanations are way off the mark. Ross is currently benefitting from significantly better marketing which is pulling in a wider array of customers – including some new demographics, which has expanded its customer base. Across all banners, TJX has always had a wider spread of customers than Ross and so its gains are not quite so impressive; it basically starts from a higher base. Very little is related to TJX’s price points which are, for the products it sells, strong and help it pull in a lot of middle class Americans who are trading down from other channels. Burlington has grown through expansion. It has the lowest income customers of the lot so it does struggle with pushing up spend at existing locations.
A bit of an apples and oranges comparison based on the maturity of TJX and the less developed Ross business. Percentages can be misleading depending on the base from which they’re calculated and shifts in marketing calendars. Regarding department stores vs discount stores, the merchandising experience can be wildly similar depending on where one shops.
OK, I get it. It’s not the 1980’s or 1990’s any longer. The 30 year decline in department store market share is well documented. But it’s not all due to the brilliance of the off-pricers. Department stores are also now saying that they can do the math too, and are closing doors. Basically handing the off-pricers the foot traffic on a silver platter. Part of that is their own fault, part is ecommerce, part is the emergence of Target and Walmart. Department stores, and especially regional department stores, really did turn out to be dinosaurs. But…I am encouraged by what I’m reading recently about Macy’s, and Dillard’s, and Nordstrom, and Von Maur.
The macro numbers are interesting, but Placer.ai has this data door by door by door. It would be reeeaaalllyy interesting to see the micro numbers for markets where department stores are desperately trying to reinvent themselves. Markets where Dillard’s never stopped being a tough competitor. Markets where Macy’s is deeply investing in reinvention. I’d reeeaaalllyy like to see the middle market stabilize and reassert it’s (yes, diminished) role in the market.
Off-price retail is still seeing strong growth because customers are becoming more focused on value across categories. The interesting part is that each retailer is attracting customers differently. Ross is benefiting from a very clear low-price positioning, while TJ Maxx and Marshalls are balancing value with branded products. Burlington’s traffic story shows that opening more stores alone is not enough if traffic per store starts slowing down.
From a retail perspective, Ross currently has the strongest positioning because its model matches how customers are spending in this environment. Customers are becoming more selective and price-sensitive, and Ross is keeping the value message very simple. At the same time, off-price growth will eventually slow if discretionary spending weakens further. The retailers that continue to win will be the ones that maintain strong value perception and keep products fresh enough to bring customers back regularly.
More Discussions
Will a Price Reset and Store Refreshes Give Bed Bath & Beyond / The Container Store Any Momentum?
Will the incoming slew of price resets drive interest in BBB and The Container Store?How Should Five Below Move Forward As Caution Reigns, Despite Recent Success Stories?
What’s the best bet for Five Below to try and maintain its current momentum?How Many Retailers (or Shoppers) Are Keen To License AI Versions of Mr. Potato Head, Optimus Prime, and More From Hasbro?
How much interest do you believe will retailers, and consumers, show in licensed products around Hasbro’s…
I’ll always vote for TJX because they understand and appreciate great merchandising.That’s a big differentiator, and the reason that their revenues are so high.
This line – which I believe was the original ‘head’ before the article got upgraded to the Forum – to me is the real story…more than the jockeying for position in the horse race (aka: QonQ changes of individual sellers)
Together with the similar pattern in grocery – which would look even worse if WalMart is included in the discount category – we seem to be seeing a collapse in conventional retailing….or at least the players that have long dominated it.
Having worked on large-scale retail commerce transformation initiatives during my time supporting Big Lots, this trend feels less cyclical and more behavioral. Consumers are increasingly prioritizing value, immediacy, and discovery over polished department store experiences. That’s why off-price continues gaining momentum even as broader retail traffic softens.
Burlington Stores likely has the biggest differentiation opportunity if it can better connect localized inventory, AI-driven allocation, and faster merchandising feedback loops without losing its value-first identity. Department stores are certainly losing trips to e-commerce, but off-pricers are winning because they still create the urgency and “treasure hunt” experience that digital channels struggle to replicate consistently.
The foot traffic data might be accurate, but some of the explanations are way off the mark. Ross is currently benefitting from significantly better marketing which is pulling in a wider array of customers – including some new demographics, which has expanded its customer base. Across all banners, TJX has always had a wider spread of customers than Ross and so its gains are not quite so impressive; it basically starts from a higher base. Very little is related to TJX’s price points which are, for the products it sells, strong and help it pull in a lot of middle class Americans who are trading down from other channels. Burlington has grown through expansion. It has the lowest income customers of the lot so it does struggle with pushing up spend at existing locations.
A bit of an apples and oranges comparison based on the maturity of TJX and the less developed Ross business. Percentages can be misleading depending on the base from which they’re calculated and shifts in marketing calendars. Regarding department stores vs discount stores, the merchandising experience can be wildly similar depending on where one shops.
OK, I get it. It’s not the 1980’s or 1990’s any longer. The 30 year decline in department store market share is well documented. But it’s not all due to the brilliance of the off-pricers. Department stores are also now saying that they can do the math too, and are closing doors. Basically handing the off-pricers the foot traffic on a silver platter. Part of that is their own fault, part is ecommerce, part is the emergence of Target and Walmart. Department stores, and especially regional department stores, really did turn out to be dinosaurs. But…I am encouraged by what I’m reading recently about Macy’s, and Dillard’s, and Nordstrom, and Von Maur.
The macro numbers are interesting, but Placer.ai has this data door by door by door. It would be reeeaaalllyy interesting to see the micro numbers for markets where department stores are desperately trying to reinvent themselves. Markets where Dillard’s never stopped being a tough competitor. Markets where Macy’s is deeply investing in reinvention. I’d reeeaaalllyy like to see the middle market stabilize and reassert it’s (yes, diminished) role in the market.
Off-price retail is still seeing strong growth because customers are becoming more focused on value across categories. The interesting part is that each retailer is attracting customers differently. Ross is benefiting from a very clear low-price positioning, while TJ Maxx and Marshalls are balancing value with branded products. Burlington’s traffic story shows that opening more stores alone is not enough if traffic per store starts slowing down.
From a retail perspective, Ross currently has the strongest positioning because its model matches how customers are spending in this environment. Customers are becoming more selective and price-sensitive, and Ross is keeping the value message very simple. At the same time, off-price growth will eventually slow if discretionary spending weakens further. The retailers that continue to win will be the ones that maintain strong value perception and keep products fresh enough to bring customers back regularly.