In Off-Price Retail, Who Has the Most Interesting Recent Traffic Story?

With TJX and Ross Dress for Less poised to soon release their most up-to-date earnings, Placer.ai's The Anchor dropped a slew of data surrounding off-price retail traffic -- and some of the findings are ripe for discussion.

The outlet's Lila Margalit noted one particular finding up front: Off-price as a whole is seeing a growing advantage versus department stores when it comes to foot traffic.

"Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores. The category captured 65.7% of combined visit share in Q1 2026, up from 62.2% in Q1 2025 and just 56.2% in Q1 2022. These steady, multi-year gains underscore a structural shift in where consumers are choosing to shop – one that continues to accelerate as value becomes a central decision driver," Margalit wrote.

Ross Dress for Less Sees Traffic Surge During Q1

Ross Dress for Less was the runaway victor, nabbing a massive 18% overall improvement in same-store visit growth throughout the first quarter of 2026 versus year-prior figures. Average visits per location was also up (at 14.1% YoY growth) for Q1 2026, with January (up 8.2%), February (up a whopping 21.4% YoY), March (up 15.4%), and April (up 13.5%) all seeing huge visit growth for Ross.

Margalit suggested that Ross was frequently able to undercut even its off-price competitors with its "no-frills" approach, making it an attractive prospect to buyers who are continually trading down as economic pressures mount. Also, with no e-comm channel to speak of, all customer interest is funneled to brick-and-mortar locations.

TJ Maxx and Marshalls See Modest Visit Growth, But Recent (and Perhaps Worrisome) Softness

As many analysts continue to raise the target price of TJX Companies based on previous performance and future prospects, most of the data presented by Margalit appears to jive with those takes.

• On overall visits, TJ Maxx saw 2.5% growth in Q1 2026 YoY against Marshalls' 3.3%.
• TJMaxx (up 1.7%) and Marshalls (up 1.6%) were nearly identical on average visits per location for the quarter.
• However, while both TJ Maxx and Marshalls were up in January (up 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively) and especially February (up 5.8% and 6.6%), March (down 1.5% and 0.8%, respectively) and April (up 0.4% and down 1.2%, respectively) show signs of growing foot traffic challenges.

"Marmaxx's [a portmanteau of TJ Maxx and Marshalls] higher price points and more brand-forward assortment likely make it more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks than Ross – while its e-commerce presence could also be absorbing demand as higher gas prices shift some shopping online," Margalit suggested.

Burlington's Aggressive Store Expansion Drives Overall Traffic as Per-Location Traffic Falls

With Burlington engaged in an aggressive store expansion plan which looks to see 100 store openings in 2026 -- and 26 stores in May alone -- it may come as little surprise that while overall foot traffic improved by an impressive 7.7% during Q1 2026 YoY, per-store visit figures fell by 2.1%.

With Burlington traffic yo-yoing throughout the months comprising Q1 -- relatively flat (down 0.1%) in January, up 3.9% in February, down by the same 3.9% in March, and down 2.9% in April -- it looks like there may be opportunity to further fine tune its new elevation game plan.

"The company’s elevation strategy -- focused on improving assortment quality with more recognizable brands and higher quality products -- has delivered solid results in recent quarters. But with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, the elevated assortment may be temporarily finding a smaller audience -- a dynamic likely amplified by Burlington’s more value-oriented customer base compared to peers," Margalit concluded.