December 15, 2025
ValeStock/Depositphotos.com
Will Super Saturday Break Records, or Are Shoppers Tapped Out?
New data issued by the National Retail Federation (NRF) Dec. 15 suggests that, despite macroeconomic headwinds and strong spend so far this holiday sales season, U.S. shoppers aren’t quite done yet.
“As the final Saturday before Dec. 25, Super Saturday is a significant shopping event for both consumers and retailers,” NRF VP of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said.
“This year’s event falls only five days before the Christmas holiday, and consumers will shop across retailers and channels in search of the final gifts on their lists and other holiday items they need to complete a memorable holiday season,” she added.
This year, the NRF expects that 158.8 million American consumers will be shopping on the last Saturday before Christmas, deemed Super Saturday, which falls on Dec. 20 this year. That’s up from a figure of 157.2 million in 2024, and 141.9 million in 2023 — eking out a win over 2022’s previous record of 158.5 million.
Other findings from the NRF survey:
- Nearly half of respondents (45%) indicate that they will be shopping both in-store and online, up slightly from the 44% who said as much last year. Further breaking down the numbers, 29% will be shopping exclusively in-store, and 26% online only.
- In terms of destinations, online retailers will be grabbing the bulk of the traffic (46%) per projections, with department stores (33%) and discount stores (26%) taking the second and third place on the podium, respectively.
- Top gifts that shoppers have already brought home include clothes and accessories (48%), toys (30%), gift cards (27%), and books, music, movies, video games and other forms of media (25%). Personal care and beauty items rounded out the top entries in this list (23%).
Super Saturday Could Tempt Shoppers, Particularly Procrastinators
Shoppers had so far admitted to wrapping up just over half (51%) of their holiday shopping, on average. For those procrastinators with more than half of their shopping left to do, reasons provided included: they were still trying to figure out exactly what to buy (33%), they had other pressing financial priorities (25%), or were waiting on their loved ones to tell them what they’d like (23%).
“Along with tangible items, gifts of experience continue to be a popular choice for people looking to create memories with loved ones,” Prosper Insights & Analytics EVP of Strategy Phil Rist said.
“Three in 10 shoppers (31%) plan to give an experience this year, such as art classes or tickets to an event. This figure has grown in popularity over the past 10 years, when only 22% of shoppers expected to give an experience in 2015,” he continued.
During the week following Christmas Day, nearly three-quarters (70%) of U.S. shoppers expect to once again his the aisles — digital or physical — to shop. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the motivations for these trips involve wanting to score great post-Christmas sales and promotions (45%) and using gift cards (26%).
BrainTrust
Shep Hyken
Chief Amazement Officer, Shepard Presentations, LLC
Jeff Sward
Founding Partner, Merchandising Metrics
Mohamed Amer, PhD
CEO & Strategic Board Advisor, Strategy Doctor
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
Will Super Saturday break records in terms of shopper participation this year? Why or why not? What factors aren’t being discussed?
Are any of the projections made by NRF surprising, in your opinion?
What do you make of online retailers commanding a bulk of the traffic, especially so close to Christmas?
Poll
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I am sure that there will be solid overall sales growth. However, I think it will fall short of being spectacular. And, of course, overall growth will include inflation so underlying volumes will be a little weaker. However, consumers have been remarkably resilient all year and they will continue to deft some of the doom and gloom forecasts that are swirling around.
By “shopping event,” if the name Super Saturday is interpreted as another “big sale,” it becomes another diluted promotional event. How many sales can happen within a few weeks? Black Friday and Cyber Monday are now multi-week promotions versus two special days. Instead, as retailers, we should view Super Saturday as what it is: the last day most people are off work before Christmas, when they do their final purchasing.
“Super Saturday”?oh my…is it more – or less – important than Black Friday? Cyber Monday? If you’ve had it with contrived “days” and you know it, clap your hands…
I have a very tough time getting excited about Super Saturday at this point. We are 10 days out from Christmas and 7 weeks out from January 31st. The prize for retailers at this point lies in sales and inventory trends, TY vs LY. What’s the status of weeks-of-supply (WOS), TY vs LY? Or days-of-inventory (DOI) if that’s more meaningful? Super Saturday will make for some interesting chat, but it’s a long 7 weeks until the end of January. The sales numbers for Super Saturday won’t be as interesting as the promotions and markdowns it will take to generate those sales. Breaking sales records isn’t so cheery if you have to break markdown records to do it.
Super Saturday is just a calendar reality. The real story here is retail’s need to manufacture urgency around basic shopping patterns. We’ve gone from legitimate traditions (Black Friday) to fabricated events (Cyber Monday) to simply rebranding procrastination as a strategy. The 158.8 million shoppers predicted aren’t responding to Super Saturday; they’re responding to the fact that December 25th is five days away.
There can only be so many fabricated sales days! Rather than positioning this as Super Saturday, it’s really just the last weekend before the holiday. People who still need to shop will do so. But not so sure this is any different or spectacular as compared to any other year.
Super Saturday will, indeed, be super. Given consumer spending so far, there is no reason to believe that the current trend will falter. With the Fed cutting interest rates, record high stock markets and significantly lower gas prices, consumers are receiving positive economic news. The one caution will be in the grocery sector where, even with reduced inflation, food prices are still high. Celebrations will happen, but trade-offs to value food stores and more discriminating impulse behaviors.
Upper incomes have the luxury of spending all ‘season’ or spending at the end.
Is the Fed footing the bill for a shopping spree? (Bank savings rates could go lower).
Stock market gains only happen if you have stocks & sell to take the gains. (That is the only time the ‘gain’ is real… once you leave/sell off).
While Super Saturday has the potential to be another high-traffic shopping day, I remain cautious about declaring it a record-breaker just yet. We’ve seen a surprisingly resilient consumer this season, but sentiment and behavior can shift quickly — especially as we get closer to Christmas and households reconcile discretionary spending with ongoing pressure from inflation, interest rates, and uneven income growth. What’s less discussed is how much of this “positive momentum” is being driven by promotion depth and deal-seeking versus true demand expansion, which matters greatly for margin health and post-holiday performance.
NRF’s projections aren’t necessarily surprising given the recent run of encouraging sales data, but they should be interpreted carefully. Forecasts at this stage of the season tend to extrapolate recent trends, and history has shown that late-December shopping can be volatile, influenced by weather, fulfillment confidence, and last-minute budget recalibration. Strong participation doesn’t always equate to strong profitability, and that distinction will become clearer once returns and markdown recovery are factored in.
The continued dominance of online traffic so close to Christmas reinforces how much shopper behavior has fundamentally changed. Consumers now trust last-mile delivery, BOPIS, and same-day options more than ever, reducing the urgency to visit stores earlier. That said, this shift puts enormous pressure on retailers’ execution — inventory accuracy, fulfillment speed, and digital merchandising must all perform flawlessly. In an environment where the outlook can change week to week, the winners won’t be those who chase headlines, but those who consistently execute the fundamentals while remaining agile enough to respond if demand softens.
“post-holiday performance”
As the USA enters the remaining 3/4 of trump 2.0
Still TBD: how much the Returns Season affects bottom line business.
Do shoppers who wait til last week bracket more, or less, than other weeks?
Online retailers command the bulk of holiday traffic because they give shoppers the gifts of convenience and time savings. By helping customers skip the commute, the fight for parking spots, large crowds and long lines, online retailers reduce friction and make holiday shopping a joy.
Ah! “The gift of convenience”. A perfect description. I will use it.
Super Saturday is less a signal of aggressive spending and more a reflection of late, urgent demand. Many customers are still deciding, moving quickly across channels, and looking for certainty rather than inspiration.
At this point in the season, the real risk for retailers is not inventory shortage. It is unclear inventory visibility and vague delivery promises. Last-minute customers want to know one thing. Is the product available, and will it arrive when promised?
Retailers that provide clear availability and realistic delivery signals are the ones that convert this demand. When information is precise, customers act with confidence. When it is not, they move on.
Peak shopping days have always rewarded operational clarity. The retailers who get the basics right tend to win, especially when time is tight.
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I am sure that there will be solid overall sales growth. However, I think it will fall short of being spectacular. And, of course, overall growth will include inflation so underlying volumes will be a little weaker. However, consumers have been remarkably resilient all year and they will continue to deft some of the doom and gloom forecasts that are swirling around.
By “shopping event,” if the name Super Saturday is interpreted as another “big sale,” it becomes another diluted promotional event. How many sales can happen within a few weeks? Black Friday and Cyber Monday are now multi-week promotions versus two special days. Instead, as retailers, we should view Super Saturday as what it is: the last day most people are off work before Christmas, when they do their final purchasing.
“Super Saturday”?oh my…is it more – or less – important than Black Friday? Cyber Monday? If you’ve had it with contrived “days” and you know it, clap your hands…
I have a very tough time getting excited about Super Saturday at this point. We are 10 days out from Christmas and 7 weeks out from January 31st. The prize for retailers at this point lies in sales and inventory trends, TY vs LY. What’s the status of weeks-of-supply (WOS), TY vs LY? Or days-of-inventory (DOI) if that’s more meaningful? Super Saturday will make for some interesting chat, but it’s a long 7 weeks until the end of January. The sales numbers for Super Saturday won’t be as interesting as the promotions and markdowns it will take to generate those sales. Breaking sales records isn’t so cheery if you have to break markdown records to do it.
Super Saturday is just a calendar reality. The real story here is retail’s need to manufacture urgency around basic shopping patterns. We’ve gone from legitimate traditions (Black Friday) to fabricated events (Cyber Monday) to simply rebranding procrastination as a strategy. The 158.8 million shoppers predicted aren’t responding to Super Saturday; they’re responding to the fact that December 25th is five days away.
There can only be so many fabricated sales days! Rather than positioning this as Super Saturday, it’s really just the last weekend before the holiday. People who still need to shop will do so. But not so sure this is any different or spectacular as compared to any other year.
Super Saturday will, indeed, be super. Given consumer spending so far, there is no reason to believe that the current trend will falter. With the Fed cutting interest rates, record high stock markets and significantly lower gas prices, consumers are receiving positive economic news. The one caution will be in the grocery sector where, even with reduced inflation, food prices are still high. Celebrations will happen, but trade-offs to value food stores and more discriminating impulse behaviors.
Upper incomes have the luxury of spending all ‘season’ or spending at the end.
Is the Fed footing the bill for a shopping spree? (Bank savings rates could go lower).
Stock market gains only happen if you have stocks & sell to take the gains. (That is the only time the ‘gain’ is real… once you leave/sell off).
While Super Saturday has the potential to be another high-traffic shopping day, I remain cautious about declaring it a record-breaker just yet. We’ve seen a surprisingly resilient consumer this season, but sentiment and behavior can shift quickly — especially as we get closer to Christmas and households reconcile discretionary spending with ongoing pressure from inflation, interest rates, and uneven income growth. What’s less discussed is how much of this “positive momentum” is being driven by promotion depth and deal-seeking versus true demand expansion, which matters greatly for margin health and post-holiday performance.
NRF’s projections aren’t necessarily surprising given the recent run of encouraging sales data, but they should be interpreted carefully. Forecasts at this stage of the season tend to extrapolate recent trends, and history has shown that late-December shopping can be volatile, influenced by weather, fulfillment confidence, and last-minute budget recalibration. Strong participation doesn’t always equate to strong profitability, and that distinction will become clearer once returns and markdown recovery are factored in.
The continued dominance of online traffic so close to Christmas reinforces how much shopper behavior has fundamentally changed. Consumers now trust last-mile delivery, BOPIS, and same-day options more than ever, reducing the urgency to visit stores earlier. That said, this shift puts enormous pressure on retailers’ execution — inventory accuracy, fulfillment speed, and digital merchandising must all perform flawlessly. In an environment where the outlook can change week to week, the winners won’t be those who chase headlines, but those who consistently execute the fundamentals while remaining agile enough to respond if demand softens.
“post-holiday performance”
As the USA enters the remaining 3/4 of trump 2.0
Still TBD: how much the Returns Season affects bottom line business.
Do shoppers who wait til last week bracket more, or less, than other weeks?
Online retailers command the bulk of holiday traffic because they give shoppers the gifts of convenience and time savings. By helping customers skip the commute, the fight for parking spots, large crowds and long lines, online retailers reduce friction and make holiday shopping a joy.
Ah! “The gift of convenience”. A perfect description. I will use it.
Super Saturday is less a signal of aggressive spending and more a reflection of late, urgent demand. Many customers are still deciding, moving quickly across channels, and looking for certainty rather than inspiration.
At this point in the season, the real risk for retailers is not inventory shortage. It is unclear inventory visibility and vague delivery promises. Last-minute customers want to know one thing. Is the product available, and will it arrive when promised?
Retailers that provide clear availability and realistic delivery signals are the ones that convert this demand. When information is precise, customers act with confidence. When it is not, they move on.
Peak shopping days have always rewarded operational clarity. The retailers who get the basics right tend to win, especially when time is tight.