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July 17, 2025
Over 80% of Retail Store Managers Expect Sales To Remain Healthy This Year: Are They Right?
Despite a proliferation of news headlines tied to iffy consumer sentiment and the negative impact that an ongoing and turbulent trade policy — particularly concerning tariffs — might have on retailers, it appears that the bulk of front-line store management figures may be taking the opposite stance.
According to Levin Management’s recent “2025 Mid-Year Retail Sentiment Survey,” store managers polled are not only satisfied with sales figures year-to-date, but also remain optimistic about the prospects of maintaining that head of steam as 2025 draws to a close.
Vast Majority of Retail Store Managers Surveyed Expect Sales To Increase or Keep Pace
Among the most interesting of the study’s core findings:
- A full 82.4% of store managers polled indicated that they expect sales to increase, or at least maintain pace, throughout the rest of the year.
- Only a slightly lesser cohort (75.2%) stated that current year-to-date sales had met, or exceeded, mid-year 2024 levels.
- Nearly the same percentage (74.8%) reported same, or higher, traffic within stores. This statistic represents an all-time high for the survey.
Tech Innovation and Digital Marketing Diversity Also Seeing Adoption
The study’s core findings sprawled further to incorporate questions related to other hot topics in the retail realm, mostly notably tech integration and the evolution of digital marketing strategies.
Nearly a majority (44%) of retail store managers surveyed indicated that their company was making new technology investments in 2025, and 20.2% — versus 11.8% in 2024 — highlighted that they would be “actively engaging” AI to benefit their business this year. A further 35.4% suggested they would be exploring the use of AI tools this year, versus just 20.6% in 2024.
When it comes to digital channels, the mix of buy-in continues to develop. Social media market was deployed by nearly two-thirds (65.3%) of retailers polled, and email marketing came in just behind (62.7%).
Loyalty and rewards platforms were enacted by just under half (47.5%) of respondents, and more than a third of survey participants indicated that they are actively incorporating “content marketing, display/banner ads, search engine marketing (SEM) and search engine optimization (SEO) in their digital mix.”
Survey Data Says: Retail Store Managers Relatively Unbothered by ‘Shifting Conditions’
The bottom line, according to Levin Management CEO Matthew K. Harding: According to his company’s research, retailers — at least within its 125-property, 16-million-square-foot leasing and management portfolio — appear to be relatively unworried by persistent macroeconomic headwinds.
“We asked store managers within our leasing and management portfolio whether economic conditions, trade policy or consumer sentiment during the past six months changed their outlook for 2025,” Harding began, setting the stage.
“With under 30% answering in the affirmative, we see a clear indication that retailer performance expectations are less tied to shifting conditions than in the past few years. The bottom line is people are shopping and spending,” he concluded.
Discussion Questions
Should retailers, speaking broadly, be expecting sales to increase, or at least keep pace, as 2025 winds down? Why or why not? Should optimism, or expectations, be tempered?
Are the negative impacts of trade policy or consumer sentiment overstated at this point in time? If so, why is this occurring? If not, where are these headwinds most evident?
Poll
Loading …BrainTrust
Paula Rosenblum
Co-founder, RSR Research
Mohamed Amer, PhD
CEO & Strategic Board Advisor, Strategy Doctor
Mark Ryski
Founder, CEO & Author, HeadCount Corporation
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Across the first half of this year, retail sales rose 3.6% or by $117 billion in cash terms. Yes, some of this is driven by inflation, but it shows resilience among consumers. It also shows there are gains to be made. That said, volume growth is more sluggish, and it is not sufficient to boost all retailers. So, some stores will lose out – exactly in the way that while Walmart is winning, Target is languishing. The big question is how this all plays out over the second half of the year. There was more talk than action on tariffs in the first half; in the second half we will see some of the policies start to bite.
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While sentiment analysis has its place — and the survey results are certainly encouraging — it’s premature to pop the champagne heading into the back half of the year. The full impact of tariffs likely hasn’t hit yet, in part due to inconsistent policy signals and delays in supply chain. As a result, media headlines may be running slightly ahead of what shoppers are actually feeling in-store. That said, the latest CPI data shows inflation rose to 2.7% in June year-over-year — the highest increase since February. Optimism is good, but I’d pair it with a healthy dose of caution.
Retail sales rose last month, and with prices expected to climb further, I anticipate this upward trend continuing. Whether the increase in sales reflects stronger consumer confidence or simply higher prices remains unclear, especially since we’ve yet to experience the full effects of recent tariffs.
The back-to-school season is a particularly telling barometer, spanning apparel, home goods, and stationery. I’ll feel more optimistic once comprehensive results are in, but early reports of a strong Prime Day are certainly encouraging.
I’m curious exactly what question was asked; i.e. were they asked about sales levels in all stores, or just their store specifically: people are almost always enthusiastic about their own prospects – even if they’re pessimistic about conditions in general – so I’m relucatant to over attach meaning here.
Our survey of 123 retailers director and above tells us their bosses don’t think so (except for grocers, because people gotta eat).
Data matters!
Agree here. I think grocers will see a small increase but I think it really depends on the commodity. Currently, I am consulting in retail furniture- pricing is going up, but very few customers are spending because they still are watching their discretionary monies. That mattress or living room set is going to have to last another year or until the purse strings let up.
Store managers’ optimism is a lagging indicator. They’re measuring current consumer behavior, which remains resilient, but are missing structural headwinds. While, as Paula suggests, retail executives see a less rosy second half. Successful retailers should listen to both signals—use manager insights for tactical adjustments while heeding executive concerns for strategic planning. Bridging this information gap is more important than picking one over the other. Different organizational levels see different aspects of the same reality. Last point, keep in mind that the survey source is a real estate company with 125 properties, which would have a vested interest in portraying their retail tenants as thriving.
Store managers, by nature, are optimistic about their store’s sales outlook. Retail executives, those who report to stockholders (Wall Street and more commonly PE firms) are by their nature more risk averse and pessimistic. Factor in a bit of inflation and unpredictable effect of any real changes to tariffs, and I’d expect sales to remain flat.
Of course, sales are going to increase. As the tariffs take hold, prices will go up, and therefore sales will increase.
Why do we always focus on “sales by dollars” rather than “sales by volume”?
Don’t I keep reading about personal debt that keep hitting new record levels…??? And deliquency rates on that debt is rising to record levels…??? And that even BNPL has a delinquency problem…??? I guess that it’s great that people want to continue to shop and spend, but the big picture math doesn’t seem to be our friend here.
How are these retailers managing their OTB at this point? Is there some top-down boundary setting given the macro environment, or is all this enthusiasm creating some OTB optimism that will create inventory problems down the line…???
Retailers and consumers are pausing discretionary spending in 2025. Tariff threats, job insecurity and general uncertainty mean non-essential categories could see slower sales (by both dollar and unit measurements). Given ongoing margin pressure, how many retailers can afford to offer holiday deals this year?