March 11, 2026
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Is a Retail Sales Boom in the Cards This Year?
Despite a number of macroeconomic headwinds, U.S. retail spending appears to be picking up a full head of steam in recent months, with February showing outsized growth over even January’s optimistic results.
Per the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, February saw total retail sales improve by 0.28% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, or 6.24% unadjusted year-over-year. This can be compared to sales growth of 0.2% month-over-month and 5.72% YoY in January.
“Despite harsh winter weather, consumer spending grew once again in February, supported by continued wage gains and overall low unemployment levels,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of The National Retail Federation.
“This was the fifth consecutive month that sales rose from the month before, and year-over-year gains were strong. With renewed fighting in the Middle East and its impact on global economies, retailers remain heavily focused on delivering products at competitive prices to value conscious consumers,” he added.
When looking at the breakout data on a YoY basis, one thing became immediately apparent — of the nine categories provided by the Retail Monitor, only building and garden supplies (down 5.75% on a year-over-year basis) showed consistent weakness, down each and every month spanning back to September 2025.
Clothing and accessories (up 11.05%), health and personal care (up 9.33%), food services and drinking places (improving 7.89%), and general merchandise (up 7.77% YoY) exhibited superior sales growth in the February report, although all categories trended upwards with the exception of building and garden supplies.
Other data points pulled from the report included:
- Clothing and accessories stores performed well in both categories, up the aforementioned 11.05% YoY and a strong 0.66% MoM. The same could be said for health and personal care stores, as well as general merchandise stores.
- While sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores dipped by 0.27% in terms of retail sales (MoM) in Februaury, their year-over-year performance was much stronger, improving by 6.53% during that time frame.
- Grocery and beverage stores managed to register a 0.3% MoM improvement in February, as well as a respectable 4.57% uptick YoY.
- Digital products (typified by things such as eBooks and games) moved up by 0.98% in February month-over-month, and were also up by just over 3% (3.07%) YoY.
BrainTrust
Nicholas Morine
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
Based on the figures presented by NRF’s Retail Monitor, can we expect 2026 to be a booming year for retail sales? Why or why not, in your opinion?
Is there anything that can be done, from a retail perspective, to help buoy sales of building and garden supplies?
With so many studies suggesting that discretionary spend is hurting, why do you think clothing and accessories stores are doing so well?
Poll
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Anyone thinking they have the inside scoop on how this administration’s chaos will play out in retail, just wait a week. We have renewed consumer confidence – at least for people with money, higher prices, higher wages, and everyone worried about the prospect of tomorrow. Gas is the next shockwave, but we are in uncharted territory.
With no explanation offered for the Iran war, and resulting oil price shocks, it’s hard to predict customer behavior at all. Put me firmly in the pessimist camp.
Yup. Having lived through the gas shortages of the 70’s and stood on those lines, I can’t see it inspiring a retail renaissance. I ctually went out last night and mixed my premium gas with regular gas (they were out of premium and mid-grade) so that it’ll be a while before I need more.. I see people (including me, to be honest), postponing discretionary spending and just making sure my house is safe from impending storms.
Will retail sales grow this year? Yes, in value terms they will. Some of that is inflation, so underlying volume growth will be much more subdued. It is unreasonable to describe this as a boom. It is more like gentle growth. The underlying consumer and economic dynamics do not support stellar growth. That said, there may be some nice uplifts around tax season as refunds should run higher this year; but that’s a blip, not a trend.
The latest figures from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor certainly show continued momentum in retail sales, but I would hesitate to call 2026 a “boom” year just yet. Retail sales were up about 6% year over year in the first two months of the year, with strong gains across most categories and five consecutive months of growth. That said, the broader outlook still includes a number of meaningful headwinds. Tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and evolving consumer sentiment all suggest that the year may be characterized by steady but uneven growth rather than a true boom. In short, the American consumer has been remarkably resilient, but there appear to be more negative headwinds than positive tailwinds shaping the environment for the rest of the year.
The building and garden supply category illustrates how macroeconomic factors can influence retail performance. That sector has actually declined year over year, reflecting the sluggish housing market and softer home-improvement activity. From a retail perspective, the best opportunities to buoy sales likely revolve around merchandising and lifestyle positioning rather than simply waiting for the housing cycle to turn. Bundled project kits, seasonal outdoor-living displays, and cross-merchandising with décor, grilling, and entertaining can help reposition these purchases as lifestyle upgrades rather than purely functional home-maintenance expenses.
At the same time, the strong performance of clothing and accessories stores—up roughly 11% year over year in recent data—highlights how discretionary categories can still thrive even when consumer sentiment is mixed. Apparel often benefits from shorter purchase cycles, social influence, and promotional events that stimulate demand even in uncertain economic environments. Consumers may delay larger-ticket purchases such as home improvements or furniture, but they are still willing to refresh their wardrobes, particularly when fashion trends, value pricing, and digital discovery align.
Ultimately, the current data reinforces a broader pattern in retail today: resilient but selective spending. Consumers are still in the market, but they are becoming increasingly disciplined about where and how they spend. Retailers that combine strong value perception with compelling merchandising and seamless omnichannel execution are most likely to benefit from that environment in 2026.
“Boom” seems to have been defined down quite a bit; by my defintion, certainly not. (A cynic might even come to believe this is a case of trying to wish it so.)
At any rate I want a few more months in before offering a verdict.
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Anyone thinking they have the inside scoop on how this administration’s chaos will play out in retail, just wait a week. We have renewed consumer confidence – at least for people with money, higher prices, higher wages, and everyone worried about the prospect of tomorrow. Gas is the next shockwave, but we are in uncharted territory.
With no explanation offered for the Iran war, and resulting oil price shocks, it’s hard to predict customer behavior at all. Put me firmly in the pessimist camp.
Yup. Having lived through the gas shortages of the 70’s and stood on those lines, I can’t see it inspiring a retail renaissance. I ctually went out last night and mixed my premium gas with regular gas (they were out of premium and mid-grade) so that it’ll be a while before I need more.. I see people (including me, to be honest), postponing discretionary spending and just making sure my house is safe from impending storms.
Will retail sales grow this year? Yes, in value terms they will. Some of that is inflation, so underlying volume growth will be much more subdued. It is unreasonable to describe this as a boom. It is more like gentle growth. The underlying consumer and economic dynamics do not support stellar growth. That said, there may be some nice uplifts around tax season as refunds should run higher this year; but that’s a blip, not a trend.
The latest figures from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor certainly show continued momentum in retail sales, but I would hesitate to call 2026 a “boom” year just yet. Retail sales were up about 6% year over year in the first two months of the year, with strong gains across most categories and five consecutive months of growth. That said, the broader outlook still includes a number of meaningful headwinds. Tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and evolving consumer sentiment all suggest that the year may be characterized by steady but uneven growth rather than a true boom. In short, the American consumer has been remarkably resilient, but there appear to be more negative headwinds than positive tailwinds shaping the environment for the rest of the year.
The building and garden supply category illustrates how macroeconomic factors can influence retail performance. That sector has actually declined year over year, reflecting the sluggish housing market and softer home-improvement activity. From a retail perspective, the best opportunities to buoy sales likely revolve around merchandising and lifestyle positioning rather than simply waiting for the housing cycle to turn. Bundled project kits, seasonal outdoor-living displays, and cross-merchandising with décor, grilling, and entertaining can help reposition these purchases as lifestyle upgrades rather than purely functional home-maintenance expenses.
At the same time, the strong performance of clothing and accessories stores—up roughly 11% year over year in recent data—highlights how discretionary categories can still thrive even when consumer sentiment is mixed. Apparel often benefits from shorter purchase cycles, social influence, and promotional events that stimulate demand even in uncertain economic environments. Consumers may delay larger-ticket purchases such as home improvements or furniture, but they are still willing to refresh their wardrobes, particularly when fashion trends, value pricing, and digital discovery align.
Ultimately, the current data reinforces a broader pattern in retail today: resilient but selective spending. Consumers are still in the market, but they are becoming increasingly disciplined about where and how they spend. Retailers that combine strong value perception with compelling merchandising and seamless omnichannel execution are most likely to benefit from that environment in 2026.
“Boom” seems to have been defined down quite a bit; by my defintion, certainly not. (A cynic might even come to believe this is a case of trying to wish it so.)
At any rate I want a few more months in before offering a verdict.