June 1, 2026
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Will Consumers See Price Relief From Major Retailers as Tariff Refunds Roll Out?
Following a Supreme Court ruling which deemed President Donald Trump’s tariffs — ordered under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — unlawful, a court declaration from Brandon Lord, director of the Office of Trade for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, indicated the government has taken in about $85 billion in potential and certified refunds for processing.
As Melissa Daniels reported for Modern Retail, $20.6 billion in refunds have so far been sent to the Treasury for disbursement, with ~$166 billion still owed to importers more broadly.
The operational execution of the tariff refunds thus far has been imperfect, as Daniels underscored, with the CBP’s Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system impressing some with its efficiency while stymieing others with problems. Within Lord’s declaration, the following notes were pulled to the fore:
- In total, CBP is in receipt of more than 157,400 declarations from importers and respective brokers. Of these, approximately 108,760 have been judged valid, and most of the remainder facing issues tied to potentially mismatched file numbers, entry numbers, or template problems. Further, nearly 4,200 refunds have not been sent to Treasury for processing as a result of missing account info.
- Valid declarations so far encompass over 15.8 million tariff entries.
Confusion Abound as Tariff Refunds Face New Legal Challenges and Increased Shopper Scrutiny on Retailers
There is bound to be a great degree of confusion — arguably, the entire process has been rife with the same — as on May 29 Trump’s Department of Justice signaled intent to appeal a federal judge’s order allowing all companies which paid tariffs to seek refunds, rather than only those which had filed suit. Beyond that, several retailers — including Costco, Amazon, Nike, and IKEA — are facing their own lawsuits from shoppers seeking direct compensation for prices paid for tariffed goods.
As far as Costco goes, CEO Ron Vachris has stated that the warehouse club intends to make good on the portion of the costs downloaded to customers tied to tariffs, but specifics remain scarce with so many elements in play.
“How much we return and when depends on a variety of factors, including how much refund money we receive and when it arrives, as well as developments in the lawsuit filed against the company regarding the return process,” Vachris said.
Walmart CEO John Furner was equally cagey in terms of delivering hard promises on tariff refunds concerning its customer base, but did indicate interest in delivering some form of price relief.
“We would definitely bias and try to prioritize price investment for that, given what we’ve seen, both in terms of the pressure on consumers from fuel prices and, importantly, the retention and the share gains we’ve had. We think the single best return we can have on a dollar capital right now is to invest in the customer and invest in price,” he said.
A previous piece of Modern Retail reportage from Julia Waldow suggested that “shoppers, who have been squeezed by everything from tariffs to rising gas prices over the past year, are unlikely to see a large piece of those refunds.”
“Some brands, for example, paid higher shipping costs to get products in before tariff deadlines hit. Raw material costs also rose throughout 2025. To avoid raising prices, some brands dipped into their cash reserves. Others took out loans to pay for tariffs. Growth initiatives, like hiring additional employees or increasing marketing budgets, were also put on pause. Put together, it means that most brands can’t simply give whatever money they receive from the government back to shoppers,” Waldow concluded.
BrainTrust
Nicholas Morine
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
In your opinion, will consumers end up seeing significant price relief from retailers who receive tariff refunds? Why or why not?
Do you believe customers will react negatively to brands or retailers who are perceived to be shortchanging shoppers after being issued tariff refunds? What can businesses do to mitigate or avoid this?
Which brands or retailers, if any, do you see as potentially suffering negative PR if they fail to meaningfully deliver on customer expectations around tariff refunds?
Poll
With some exceptions, like Costco, to one side, this seems unlikely. For several reasons. First, tariff refunds are a one-hit wonder; retailers could use some of the proceeds to reduce prices temporarily, but they’d eventually need to put them back up once they’d burnt through the funds. Second, some retailers absorbed tariff related costs and took the hit on margins or found savings elsewhere – so neither they, nor investors, are going to be keen for the refund to be directed to consumers who did not suffer in the first place. Third, aside from tariffs, inflation from higher energy prices is still lingering and will be seen in prices over the next few months.
I would imagine that most customers thought that the money taken from them by the government would never be seen again.
Wasn’t this just answered a few weeks ago?
For those who missed it:
No they wiil not see price relief for refunds retailers receive, since those transactions are already past, but they will see relief on future sales if the tariffs are no longer in effect.
It’s no different than a retailer getting a refund on any other part of their business – rent, utiities, trucking, etc. – other than the scope of the chaos.
Don’t hold your breath for a miracle drop from the sky. Any tariff returns to consumers would be a mixed bag across retailers and likely won’t be a 1-for-1 reconciliation. For one, retailers like grocers who have up to 40,000 SKU’s from all over the world will likely deliver very modest and easy to implement amounts across categories over exact recovery, which be more work than it’s worth. Second, not unlike gas prices which take time to rise or decline, it needs to work its way through the entire supply chain. And third, inflation is still evident in gas prices and other infrastructure. If anything, any relief will show as a fractional adjustment.
“Price relief” can only be temporary. The fairest way to compensate customers would be through refunds. That concept too, has limitations as those customers who paid with cash, could not be identified and would not receive any refund, unless they were loyalty customers. Every retailer that accepts credit cards, or has a loyalty program can identify all the customers that were impacted, and through some work, refund the proceeds proportionately. Do they want to?
Consumers should not expect to see meaningful price relief from retailers who recieve tariff refunds. As noted, both Costco and Walmart are non-committal, because they do not yet know what the outcome will be. It would be imprudent to make any assertions about tariff refunds/price relief at this point. And while some consumers may have negative feelings about some retailers that do not offer some form of relief, virtually all retailers are in the same boat. If Costco doesn’t offer price relief, will people stop shopping at Costco? I highly doubt it. Given the challenging economic conditions most consumers are facing, tariff relief from retailers is not the biggest concern.
Persistent inflation and recent layoffs will motivate shoppers to monitor which retailers receive tariff refunds and the retailers’ subsequent moves.
Increasingly price-conscious shoppers will also mark their calendar for Amazon’s new June Prime Day and any concurrent sales at Walmart and Target.
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With some exceptions, like Costco, to one side, this seems unlikely. For several reasons. First, tariff refunds are a one-hit wonder; retailers could use some of the proceeds to reduce prices temporarily, but they’d eventually need to put them back up once they’d burnt through the funds. Second, some retailers absorbed tariff related costs and took the hit on margins or found savings elsewhere – so neither they, nor investors, are going to be keen for the refund to be directed to consumers who did not suffer in the first place. Third, aside from tariffs, inflation from higher energy prices is still lingering and will be seen in prices over the next few months.
I would imagine that most customers thought that the money taken from them by the government would never be seen again.
Wasn’t this just answered a few weeks ago?
For those who missed it:
No they wiil not see price relief for refunds retailers receive, since those transactions are already past, but they will see relief on future sales if the tariffs are no longer in effect.
It’s no different than a retailer getting a refund on any other part of their business – rent, utiities, trucking, etc. – other than the scope of the chaos.
Don’t hold your breath for a miracle drop from the sky. Any tariff returns to consumers would be a mixed bag across retailers and likely won’t be a 1-for-1 reconciliation. For one, retailers like grocers who have up to 40,000 SKU’s from all over the world will likely deliver very modest and easy to implement amounts across categories over exact recovery, which be more work than it’s worth. Second, not unlike gas prices which take time to rise or decline, it needs to work its way through the entire supply chain. And third, inflation is still evident in gas prices and other infrastructure. If anything, any relief will show as a fractional adjustment.
“Price relief” can only be temporary. The fairest way to compensate customers would be through refunds. That concept too, has limitations as those customers who paid with cash, could not be identified and would not receive any refund, unless they were loyalty customers. Every retailer that accepts credit cards, or has a loyalty program can identify all the customers that were impacted, and through some work, refund the proceeds proportionately. Do they want to?
Consumers should not expect to see meaningful price relief from retailers who recieve tariff refunds. As noted, both Costco and Walmart are non-committal, because they do not yet know what the outcome will be. It would be imprudent to make any assertions about tariff refunds/price relief at this point. And while some consumers may have negative feelings about some retailers that do not offer some form of relief, virtually all retailers are in the same boat. If Costco doesn’t offer price relief, will people stop shopping at Costco? I highly doubt it. Given the challenging economic conditions most consumers are facing, tariff relief from retailers is not the biggest concern.
Persistent inflation and recent layoffs will motivate shoppers to monitor which retailers receive tariff refunds and the retailers’ subsequent moves.
Increasingly price-conscious shoppers will also mark their calendar for Amazon’s new June Prime Day and any concurrent sales at Walmart and Target.