E-commerce will continue to grow at its present 15 to 20 percent year-over-year rate. When you look at the categories that have less than 50 percent e-commerce penetration, you can see where the opportunities are. Although fashion, travel, books and music are all well-established e-commerce categories with over 50 percent penetration; home decor, furniture, consumer electronics, beauty and personal care, household cleaning and health are all underdeveloped online categories.

Food is, by far, one of the most underdeveloped categories and the most difficult. Packaged goods will have an easier time to transition because a branded box or can is the same no matter what channel it is sold in. Cost-effective shipping is the challenge due to the weight and bulk.

Perishable products will be the most resistant to e-commerce. Consumers still want to choose what fresh products they buy. Everyone has a preference when it comes to the type of meat, fruits, vegetables and other fresh products they purchase.

You can’t fight statistics — so the pace of online sales growth in the highest penetration categories (hard/dry goods) will slow percentage-wise but still represent the bulk of the dollar growth in online sales. In CPG, the online penetration of HBC is already in the 20s as well, so food is likely to be the highest percentage gainer. Our own estimates show FTI may be a bit conservative in forecasting total food penetration to stay in the single digits. Growth in the non-perishable center store categories will lead the way to what we think will be the 10 percent-plus range by 2022. That expectation is based on the acceleration curve of adoption rates in online grocery versus the early trend lines for more developed categories now. Could be right, could be wrong — it’s not a “statistic” until it happens.

No doubt online sales will continue to grow over the next decade. But given that Millennials like in-store shopping, omnichannel retail will become increasingly important. Today only 29.1 percent of U.S. and 23.5 percent of Canadian retailers have in-store pickup capabilities (OrderDynamics, Oct 2017) — but that is going to change fast. That means as online grows, so will the opportunity for consumers to pick up their products right away, directly from the store while doing errands. So retailers, make sure your retail technology is up-to-date. This is more than just a passing trend.

As baby boomers begin to retire/shop from home and Gen Z starts to have more buying power, I see online sales growing. But I have noticed recently some issues with online ordering, such as ordering 2 or 3-day shipping but the product isn’t prepared for 3 or 4 days, making the entire process take over a week. Other issues I have seen are poor product descriptions or misleading marketing and having to return an item. If these issues continue to grow along with the demand, I could see online sales slow until they get worked out.

Regarding product migration, I’ve always been fascinated by big bulky items and where those will live. Ideally, if a company could deliver those to the consumer’s door, that would be a major win for convenience. However, those also cost the most (dimensions and weight) and sound like a nightmare from a logistics point of view. Can’t wait to see how those play out.

Food may indeed be the final frontier for online shopping. Online grocery shopping has been around for almost 30 years now, with Peapod starting the effort. I know this category is gaining online interest, however, people take food very personally, as they should. Perhaps when we have taste and smell-sensory technologies available online, then the breakthrough may finally happen.

Does eBay get the kind of friendly treatment that Amazon gets? If not what’s the reason? After today’s earnings results eBay is down 5%.