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Will Back-to-School Shopping Reach Record Levels This Year?
With the end of summer quickly coming into view on the horizon, back-to-school shopping is already in full swing.
“Back-to-class shopping is one of the most important consumer shopping occasions of the year. Our research for 2023 shows American consumers are eager to jumpstart their back-to-school and college purchases early,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation.
Every year since 2003, the NRF has partnered with Prosper Insights & Analytics to conduct a survey assessing back-to-school shopping trends. Based on this year’s research, which involved 7,843 consumers, they predict it will be a record-breaking year.
“Back-to-school spending is expected to reach an unparalleled $41.5 billion, up from $36.9 billion last year and the previous high of $37.1 billion in 2021. Back-to-college spending is expected to hit $94 billion, about $20 billion more than last year’s record,” the NRF noted in a press release about the survey.
The NRF also said that this increase may be “primarily driven by more demand for electronics,” with 69% of shoppers saying they plan to purchase technology and computer-related accessories this year, which is “the highest in the survey’s history.”
These predictions are a good sign for the retail industry, but they go against Deloitte’s forecast for back-to-school spending.
Deloitte, after completing its own 16th annual survey, found that parents “plan to spend less this year, with total spend dropping 10% year over year (YoY). The focus is on replenishing the necessities, such as school supplies, while holding off on nonessential purchases like tech and apparel.” This marks the first decline since 2014, according to Stephen Rogers, the managing director of Deloitte’s Consumer Industry Center.
It also directly opposes the NRF’s findings — but why? Deloitte’s survey polled 1,212 parents, so the group was much smaller. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that Deloitte’s results are less accurate than the NRF’s.
According to Deloitte, the prices of school supplies have increased by 23.7% in the last two years. Inflation has certainly taken its toll, and it has led parents to search for bargains while shopping for school supplies.
The NRF and Prosper agree. “Even though consumers plan to spend more on school and college-related items this year, they are still looking to find the best value and deals,” said Phil Rist, Prosper’s executive vice president of strategy. “Consumers are stretching their dollars by comparing prices, considering off-brand or store-brand items, and are more likely to shop at discount stores than last year.”
In an interview with NPR, Stephen said, “So parents who say they’re spending more and parents who say they’re spending less, both blame inflation for that. So that’s also a curious place where we find ourselves.” This could point to a potential reason the surveys found different results. Parents hope to spend less but ultimately may end up spending more due to rising prices.
One additional aspect to consider is the act of splurging. Stephen believes that “some shoppers will still splurge on some items,” even despite financial concerns. Deloitte found that “nearly six in 10 parents are willing to splurge for the right reasons, like treating a child, self-expression, or better quality.” The survey noted that clothes, accessories, and tech products are the “top categories that may drive splurge spending,” which could be one reason the NRF expects high demand for electronics this year.
Carol Spieckerman, president of Spieckerman Retail, had this to say about the NRF and Deloitte survey results: “There are several factors at work, many of which are subjective and psychological, so both reports can be partially right.”
In Carol’s opinion, “Inflation has fallen sharply, yet the memory of it will take time to fade. Shoppers have learned how to cut corners, and those habits will die hard. Back-to-school and other shopping surge periods are often a study in spending shifts rather than significant cuts. Shifts can take the form of favoring private brands over national brands or turning to dollar stores over mass or specialty retailers.”
Cathy Hotka, founder of Cathy Hotka & Associates, also shared her thoughts. She believes that “parents may end up spending more, but their intention will be to hold the line.” She agrees that the hike in school supply prices is key here. “Consumers are facing sharply increased prices on almost everything they consume ($6 for a box of cereal?) and wages aren’t keeping pace.”
Cathy also added, “CNBC says that 64% of consumers are concerned about ‘shrinkflation,’ where companies downsize a product without changing the price. This is rampant right now. If school supplies have increased by almost 25% in only two years, you can bet that that will be top of mind for parents.”
Discussion Questions
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS: Which of these two reports do you think is going to be more accurate this year? If the NRF is right about back-to-school spending reaching record levels, do you believe this will be due to inflation or in spite of it?
Poll
Loading …BrainTrust
Ken Morris
Managing Partner Cambridge Retail Advisors
Mark Ryski
Founder, CEO & Author, HeadCount Corporation
I’m not as bullish as the NRF, but I believe that it will be a robust back-to-school season. While inflation is becoming more manageable, it’s still a challenge for many parents, and so this headwind is still very much part of the picture.
I expect back to school sales to increase slightly, due to inflation. I don’t think they’ll be outrageously higher than normal, and I don’t expect them to be significantly lower than other years. I consider this year to be a year of normalization for many events and categories.
There’s a reason Nostradamus didn’t write about back-to-school sales. He didn’t dare to guess. But I’m not Nostradamus, so I’ll go ahead and say that I believe the NRF forecast is more accurate. Yes, there is inflation. Shrinkflation is real, too. Look out for tiny crayons and 10-sheet notebooks. But parents want to give their kids the best chance at a good education, so they’ll spend more for their kids despite inflation. Let’s not forget that younger kids in particular are still playing catch-up after the pandemic. The trend to go discount will play a big factor here, but overall I’m betting on a very successful back-to-school season for retailers, both in-store and online.
Back to college spending is going to be up $20 billion…27%…??? Really…??? BTS spending will be up over $4 billion…12%…??? And parents are saying spending will be down 10%. That’s all reeeeaaallly difficult to reconcile. But since parents are the ones who will actually spending the money, I tend to lean towards their scenario. The rate of inflation may be down, but the very real fact is that prices are up pretty dramatically over the past 2 years. Budgets don’t have the elasticity that they had a year or two ago. Seems like spending that kept pace with inflation would be a big win.
After signs of improving economic sentiment in the spring, consumer spending seems to be in a summer slump. Across age and income groups, American consumers are spending less than they did last year — except on travel. Spending (on a real basis) has declined for the third month in a row, and, for the first time in more than two years, nominal spending growth is also negative. Lower spending does not bode well for Back to School shopping and it’s not likely that we’ll see record spending in 2023.
Back-to-school shopping and setting up your children for a successful year is one of the top priorities for parents as they prioritize their budgets this summer. With relentless inflation and rising prices, consumers are balancing their spending and making sacrifices to ensure our kids have the supplies, digital tools, and clothes they need.
While it’s encouraging to see the aggressive projections from the NRF, we expect this season to be driven by the conscious consumer, who is very price-sensitive and seeking value for their children. The overall state of our economy requires parents to be far more conservative with their spending yet seeking retailers offering the value and savings they need for the back-to-school season.
Inflation may have subsided somewhat. However, we are dealing with a disrupted global economy along with a chaotic job market with mass layoffs continuing in the tech and consulting sectors.
I believe there will be modest growth driven by many of the variables mentioned in the article. However, I believe there will be a hidden “splurge” element driven by the potential of the first full year of school projected to be virus free. Getting the children back in school full time is a spending celebration worthy event.
I believe it will increase due to inflation not because consumers are buying more.
I see parents are being judicious about what they are putting in their baskets because they are still cutting back on spending. Additionally, I am seeing more specials on school supplies compared to last year.
Yes (higher), and “due to inflation”…..which leads to the third question:
“are numbers meaningful if they’re not adjusted (for price levels)?”
Depends, I think, on what story you’re trying to tell.
These two reports reflect the uncertainty consumers have about the economy. While retail sales continue to rise, the pace has significantly slowed in recent months, leading me to believe the actual figure will fall somewhere in the middle.
Though NRF might be over-predicting how the season will go, a parent’s desire to ensure their kids are set to start the school year right will weigh more on purchasing decisions than inflation. To offset the rising prices, we’re seeing consumers shop earlier to seek out the best deals to make the most of their budget and ensure they send their kids to school with the necessary supplies. A great example of this is the recent record-breaking Prime Days which, despite high sales numbers, failed to meet predicted numbers this year as a result of inflation and price-mindful consumers.
With the market volatility we’ve seen in the first half of the year, it’s likely that back-to-school shopping will be impacted by inflation. With the season fast-approaching, Datasembly will be tracking the price of back-to-school items – from notebooks and pens to lunch box staples – all in real-time and on the hyper-local level, so retailers and CPGs across the nation can make the best pricing decisions possible. In 2022, we saw the branded products commonly found in lunch boxes across America were up an average of 20.3% compared to the year prior.