I don’t care what the experts say or listen to cowardly excuses such as a warm fall. The bottom line is the economy is always good all the time for good retailers. If a retailer doesn’t have a great holiday season it’s because they are not good at what they are doing and are getting what they deserve. Cross-channel capabilities will of course play a major role. The winners in that area will be the ones who keep it simple. Too many clicks means too many online carts lost in cyberspace.

Heck, I do not care about how optimistic the NRF is — they are close to right. The elections will be over and just that makes Christmas and most elements of every religion happier. The election’s ending will have more impact than personal income. Elections take a lot of energy and positive attitude out of shoppers. When they are over most Americans adjust by bird day and are ready for more vacation and Christmas break.

Also, more retailers have gotten their multichannel games in gear and are well past mid-field so they are hiring fewer add-ons for in-store, but are ramping up distribution centers. Amazon will have its few weeks of glory and I estimate that with the holiday Prime mass-streaming they have this year that their systems will crash at least once in a specific region.

I am also confident that I will get what I ask for on Christmas. Otherwise I will stomp and scream!

“Christmas with the Redds” — a new show coming out later this Fall!

I think the most interesting forecast so far has come from Deloitte. They predicted a 3.6 percent to 4 percent increase. It was where they believed the pressure and winners will come from that stood out.

From the forecast: “‘Retail competition will not only come from the big box down the street or major e-commerce players,’ Sides noted. ‘It is also likely to come from the small and midsized retailers that focus on niche products and experiences.'”

I absolutely believe that’s the case. Shoppers shop both logically and emotionally during the holidays. The retailers that can connect emotionally with the holiday consumers will be in a better position to compete with the online convenience and the low doorbuster (or more appropriately termed, margin-buster) pricing of the big boxes.

I think the NRF ought to be pounding the POTUS candidates for specific plans to address wage stagnation and the loss of jobs because unless the U.S. shopper isn’t given a pay increase next Holiday, 2017, will remain flat too.

The recent Census data was proven to be unreliable for predicting national retail sales as the reality was improvements were very regional. To the best of my knowledge, no other economic report has emerged to indicate the majority of U.S. shoppers are better off than a year ago.

Cross-channel capabilities is not a high tide to raise all boats. These tactical efforts will shift share as those retailers simplifying the lives of shoppers while saving them money will gain consideration and share if they deliver upon their promise.

I think holiday (the nine weeks of November and December) will be up 1.5 percent. I wish it were more.

As we say, “retail ain’t for sissies!”

I think this holiday period will be a strong season for retailers, however I believe there will be more variance across metropolitan areas in the U.S. than in recent years. Certain cities are seeing stronger retail recovery than others. Retailers shouldn’t assume the same forecast across the country. We may actually see dips in growth in depressed regions. Online shopping will indeed be the great equalizer, both regionally as well as for smaller retailers versus the giants. Online allows small players to “punch above their weight.”

Digital is a powerful way to connect with shoppers. According to Google, 75% of shoppers that get helpful local search results are more likely to visit your store and that 60% of folks start shopping on one device, but continue or finish on another. So the big winners this holiday will be those retailers and brands that engage with customers across all channels and flawlessly execute a consistent and positive shopping experience across same.

And this is no small feat! Today’s socially engaged and aware shoppers are more empowered than ever with competitive pricing, ratings, reviews and a multitude of other data points at their fingertips. This makes them uber quick to go elsewhere if their expectations aren’t being met.

So this holiday, it’s more important than ever for retailers and brands to be as informed as their shoppers in terms of who is selling what, where, when, and for how much to deliver that seamless cross-channel experience.