I am not sure why there is a battle and why there has to be a winner, other than the consumer. Major carriers are in business to make sure that shippers can satisfy their customers (intended recipients). Amazon – I thought – is in business as a shipper. As such they will use commercially available carriers and may, through their vast R&D, come up with innovative methods of delivering. Some of these methods may be emulated by other shippers (Amazon’s true competitors) and other carriers. Did I miss a battle?

This is more than a cost-savings or profit enhancing strategy. This is to control the experience. In addition to the 20,000 vans that Amazon has ordered, they also have contracted for 50 cargo planes as they build out their hubs in three airports strategically located (near Fort Worth, Cincinnati and Chicago). Years ago Jeff Bezos said Amazon shouldn’t have customer service issues, but once the package left the warehouse, there was no control over the experience. The investment that Amazon is making in logistics, which includes planes, vans, drones, sidewalk robots and more is about keeping control of the experience they provide their customers as much, if not even more, than trying to find a less expensive solution.

The thing with Amazon is, they’re not afraid to throw a bunch of crazy ideas at the wall to see which ones might stick. When everyone else demands a 50-page business case and three-level deep ROI analysis, Amazon is busy trying all kinds of things, learning from those and iterating multiple times – before anyone else gets one new idea off the ground.

So when it comes down to it, I don’t think it matters what Amazon tries or which ideas succeed. I think the prototypes and tests that are rolling on the streets today will look nothing like the ultimate answers to last-mile fulfillment (I’m betting on Star Trek replicators myself!). But no one will get to that end result unless they take the first step, and Amazon and a few startups are really the only ones out there trying anything, and for that, they deserve the leg up they will undoubtedly get.

I don’t like the word “undercut.” “Undercut” implies cost and the delivery is all about cost. It is about efficiency throughout the supply chain. If you improve the last mile what are the possible improvements you can make prior? You may save money, yes. But you may also save time. You may also handle inventory more efficiently.

In the next several years, many alternatives will be tried and introduced. But the delivery needs are so varied that many will be adopted for specific geographic, population and customer needs.

I think the title says it all: multi-pronged approach. And that’s exactly the right approach to take from a retailer standpoint. There’s such a variety of terrain, product sizes and consumer preferences there’s undoubtedly going to be a number of successful autonomous delivery methods. Given the investment and interest in the space, the consumer is sure to be the winner in this game.

Amazon has not hidden its intention of vertically integrating into shipping services. The have already invested massively in delivery vehicles and airplanes, as Shep Hyken mentioned, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they acquire a large shipping company. Relying on a lot of third-party delivery services is risky, as Amazon loses control over the quality of services.

I wonder whether the “Amazon Scout” can solve the problem associated with people not being home. There is still an element of friction when a customer has to balance between when they are home and when the delivery will take place.