I’m skeptical about this finding. I have been running numbers on Amazon. All online purchasing combined including Amazon adds up to about 8 to 9 percent of total retail. (Let’s figure Amazon retail equivalent revenue at $65 billion and the retail market at $3 to 4 trillion with the average retailer’s online revenue just over 7 percent.)

There is a way to make this research make sense. And that would mean online shopping may be dominated by a small number of people who buy a LOT online. If that were true, those people are not where the bulk of retail purchases have come from in the past.

But I remain skeptical of this result’s accuracy.

It’s a generalization I suspect and has to be dependent on the types of products (not groceries?). Whatever the statistics, though, people are clearly very comfortable buying a broad range of products online. To Chris’s point though, the channels are merged and the path to purchase may cover a variety of channels. Where the final order is placed (or is it where it is picked up?) isn’t necessarily the right place to attribute the sale.

As consumers find online shopping to be easy, satisfying and find that it meets their expectations the usage will continue to grow. Being able to see products quickly, get relevant information and pay reasonable shipping fees are all reasons to continue or increase online sales. As retailers offer no customer experience or reason to use gasoline or put up with the hassle of parking, consumers have less reason to visit the retailers.

When considering products that are needed immediately or where the experience of buying them is much or most of the fun, in-store retail will still be the choice. On the other hand, when the product is not needed quickly, the shopping experience is less than exciting and a one- or two-day waiting period for shipping isn’t a big deal, convenience and/or price will be a bigger driver and online purchasing becomes more compelling. Plus, as more and more Millennials move into more consumption, mobile will begin to accelerate more quickly as the way shoppers purchase.

As e-commerce retailers add features to their online shopping experience that ease friction points for consumers, online shopping will continue to increase.

The friction points that have held back e-commerce growth include the need to touch, feel and try clothing (shoes and similar items), shipping costs and return policies as well as the immediacy of customer support to answer questions while in the process of making a decision. E-commerce retailers have been chipping away at these friction points with free shipping offers, more liberal returns and online chat.

The next step in development for e-retailers will be to not just offer these added value services, but to deliver on each one with the goal of replicating a real-world shopping experience. Retailers are well-advised to make a list of steps in the shopping process that are less customer friendly than in the brick-and-mortar world and invest time and resource in addressing each of these steps.

Friendly customer service — live agent. Advanced analytics to support insight that drives personalized service based on customer preference as well as predictive behavior. Seamless integration between mobile site and pc navigation of site. No hassle returns and free shipping — either with subscription or based on threshold spend. Easy to navigate website with smooth checkout process, prompts for live chat. Preference center that captures the customers’ needs and wants, once ingested applied on a consistent basis to drive personalization and relevancy. By applying these practices and methodologies and more, online will continue to grow.

I see this situation as bimodal distribution of retail purchases: those most comfortable with online purchases will make most (>50%) of their buys online (irrespective of where the goods are delivered or picked up) and those that would rather be in stores will also shop online, but at a much lower percentage. It’s comfort, convenience, speed, and trust.

On the statistics, I tend to put more credence with the Commerce Department’s and other global online metrics that peg online sales around 10% percent of overall retail sales (yes it is higher in the UK and everywhere is climbing at higher rate than offline).

Convenience and frictionless commerce will continue to drive sales and hopefully soon we’ll stop dividing retail into online and offline, and realize that the channel doesn’t define the industry and that the experience transcends all.

The light bulb is turning on now in the majority of consumers’ minds: online shopping and purchasing is easier than going to a store. It just is. I’m not sure what’s taken consumers so long to figure that out, but it’s moving faster now than it was only a couple of years ago and IMO will overtake in-store purchasing altogether by 2025.

Here’s the new mantra: people don’t HAVE to go to stores anymore, they have to WANT to go to stores. That means that stores, in order to stay relevant, will have to become more interesting, more inviting and just better than the current model or they will close. Check out (Google) the new Macy’s test store in Columbus Ohio. Looks like the light bulb went off at Macy’s HQ as well.