The simple answer is YES. The experience online continues to get better. The delivery for the last mile continues to get faster and cheaper. Retailers are going to have two choices: 1. become more effective selling online, or 2. create really compelling stores with amazing customer experience.

The really interesting sidebar discussion is, how do you count sales going forward? If a customer visits a store and purchases online while standing in the aisle, who gets credit for the sale? And what if the consumer buying from their home computer clicks and collects in store … who gets credit? The real issue here is not online versus stores but who will win the loyalty and business from today’s omnichannel consumers.

One of our working hypotheses at Slice Intelligence is that we have moved from e-commerce v. 1.0 — which was defined by wide selection and low prices — to v. 2.0, where convenience is becoming a critical differentiator for many merchants. Subscription-based business models define many of the hottest online retailers. IoT commerce, where our washing machines and printers order laundry detergent and ink for us. Same-day delivery, meal kits, etc … We believe that merchants’ delivery against consumers’ increasing desire for more convenience is going to push e-commerce well above the 10 percent mark.

I’m skeptical about this finding. I have been running numbers on Amazon. All online purchasing combined including Amazon adds up to about 8 to 9 percent of total retail. (Let’s figure Amazon retail equivalent revenue at $65 billion and the retail market at $3 to 4 trillion with the average retailer’s online revenue just over 7 percent.)

There is a way to make this research make sense. And that would mean online shopping may be dominated by a small number of people who buy a LOT online. If that were true, those people are not where the bulk of retail purchases have come from in the past.

But I remain skeptical of this result’s accuracy.

This is all about natural evolution. As more people discover retail sites that are intuitive, simple and easy to navigate, more e-commerce will take hold as the primary channel for commerce in general. Sure there are myriad external factor that affect this progression, however, I’ll say it’s inevitable.

It’s a generalization I suspect and has to be dependent on the types of products (not groceries?). Whatever the statistics, though, people are clearly very comfortable buying a broad range of products online. To Chris’s point though, the channels are merged and the path to purchase may cover a variety of channels. Where the final order is placed (or is it where it is picked up?) isn’t necessarily the right place to attribute the sale.

As consumers find online shopping to be easy, satisfying and find that it meets their expectations the usage will continue to grow. Being able to see products quickly, get relevant information and pay reasonable shipping fees are all reasons to continue or increase online sales. As retailers offer no customer experience or reason to use gasoline or put up with the hassle of parking, consumers have less reason to visit the retailers.

When considering products that are needed immediately or where the experience of buying them is much or most of the fun, in-store retail will still be the choice. On the other hand, when the product is not needed quickly, the shopping experience is less than exciting and a one- or two-day waiting period for shipping isn’t a big deal, convenience and/or price will be a bigger driver and online purchasing becomes more compelling. Plus, as more and more Millennials move into more consumption, mobile will begin to accelerate more quickly as the way shoppers purchase.

As e-commerce retailers add features to their online shopping experience that ease friction points for consumers, online shopping will continue to increase.

The friction points that have held back e-commerce growth include the need to touch, feel and try clothing (shoes and similar items), shipping costs and return policies as well as the immediacy of customer support to answer questions while in the process of making a decision. E-commerce retailers have been chipping away at these friction points with free shipping offers, more liberal returns and online chat.

The next step in development for e-retailers will be to not just offer these added value services, but to deliver on each one with the goal of replicating a real-world shopping experience. Retailers are well-advised to make a list of steps in the shopping process that are less customer friendly than in the brick-and-mortar world and invest time and resource in addressing each of these steps.

I see this situation as bimodal distribution of retail purchases: those most comfortable with online purchases will make most (>50%) of their buys online (irrespective of where the goods are delivered or picked up) and those that would rather be in stores will also shop online, but at a much lower percentage. It’s comfort, convenience, speed, and trust.

On the statistics, I tend to put more credence with the Commerce Department’s and other global online metrics that peg online sales around 10% percent of overall retail sales (yes it is higher in the UK and everywhere is climbing at higher rate than offline).

Convenience and frictionless commerce will continue to drive sales and hopefully soon we’ll stop dividing retail into online and offline, and realize that the channel doesn’t define the industry and that the experience transcends all.

The light bulb is turning on now in the majority of consumers’ minds: online shopping and purchasing is easier than going to a store. It just is. I’m not sure what’s taken consumers so long to figure that out, but it’s moving faster now than it was only a couple of years ago and IMO will overtake in-store purchasing altogether by 2025.

Here’s the new mantra: people don’t HAVE to go to stores anymore, they have to WANT to go to stores. That means that stores, in order to stay relevant, will have to become more interesting, more inviting and just better than the current model or they will close. Check out (Google) the new Macy’s test store in Columbus Ohio. Looks like the light bulb went off at Macy’s HQ as well.