The same-day delivery bus has already left the station and has become a consumer expectation. Given the consumer demand for same-day, as a leading shipping provider, UPS needs to get in the game or risk being disrupted by the others who do. Clearly the traditional economics of shipping make same-day a real challenge for a traditional player like UPS, but they need to jump on this.

“We don’t have this all-the-way figured out” – you might not, UPS. But guess what, Amazon does! It figured it out years ago! In short, UPS is playing catch-up. Luckily, this service is one that many retailers and businesses need. I guess the success of UPS will come down to cost. Many retailers currently ship from stores for same-day delivery and if UPS can provide a service that complements and streamlines that in a way that makes economic sense for retailers, then there is an opportunity for growth.

The standard is moving away from same-day and next-day into 10 minutes. UPS is a generation behind. It would need to acquire to make significant progress here.

I just keep coming back to the economics of this. Who pays the cost? It’s great to talk about DoorDash and Uber Eats but when you look at the big chunk they take out of the profit over the restaurant it becomes a deal with the devil.

As Amazon builds out its own fleet, UPS will absolutely need to provide same-day delivery. UPS has a huge opportunity to leverage its fleet for same-day services. They have the infrastructure and have started limiting their retail clients to maximum limits which negatively impacted several of our clients during their peak season last year. These limits will allow UPS to pivot to this same-day delivery model and play the same game that Amazon is playing. Amazon learned everything it could from UPS and FedEx and, as is their model, copied what they saw and have built a competing service. Now UPS has to counter attack. Also look for retailers who use MFCs to essentially connect them to the UPS system. Meanwhile, SMBs will need to find ways to compete with Amazon and Walmart. Faster, faster, faster. It all makes sense.

Bob Phibbs and I have the same question. The ability to execute same-day delivery is there. UPS has an infrastructure that it can expand to provide this service. But that comes at a cost and the big question is, are the services and the retailers finally going to ask the consumer to pay for the privilege?

I’ve written on this platform several times that Amazon should acquire the U.S. Postal Service. They’ve actually gone one better and created a brand new Amazon postal service based on their learnings from USPS, UPS and FedEx during the past few decades. Those other three services are now fighting for Walmart, a few other premier retailers and the leftover scraps (no offense intended).

Although UPS is a bit late to the party, they MUST get into the game. In recent years, the entire delivery model has seismically shifted due to the fast-paced gig economy (and this accelerated far more quickly in the past 18 months). Same-day is a minimum ante to even be on the same playing field with those who have evolved to offer 30-minute delivery. I anticipate a tsunami of acquisitions coming soon — further disruption in delivery is mere moments away.

Developing cost effective same-day delivery is essential for the survival of UPS and they need to do it quickly, as they are far behind their competitors. Customer expectations continue to raise the bar and, for many products, consumers expect one- or two-hour delivery. UPS should shoot for a model faster than same-day.

So Amazon set the bar. Now we’re going to have a same-day delivery war. For UPS, thank you for helping to create more competition in this area. We need it to keep quality up and prices reasonable. Also, not offering a comparable service could take market share away from UPS. To really level the field, we’ll need to see other carriers get into same-day delivery.

The more delvery service providers in the game, the better the chance for a profitable business model to emerge. For example: as physical grocery stores evolve, having the ability for a shopper to buy perishables and impulse items in person, but yet give the shopper the affordable, time-saving option by ordering in-store and receiving the bulky and “repeated use items” later that day would be a plus. As UPS ups their game and becomes a player in this space, I could see significant partnerships with retailers forming, IF innovation and technology allows them to offer the service at a reasonable price.

As UPS and FedEx become adept at same-day service, Amazon will set the bar at one hour to hold onto their e-commerce captaincy. Great for the customer, but it’s going to put even more stress on retailers who don’t have in-house access to a robust last-mile delivery network like that of Amazon – and soon Walmart.

UPS is a late entrant in the game that Amazon has both disrupted and innovated in the age of instant gratification and same-day delivery. The traditional operating shipment model of 3-5 business days is no longer the standard. Customer expectations are around choice and the ability to choose their delivery preferences on how, when, and where they will receive their products.

The state of the supply chain and customer fulfillment industry calls for same-day delivery mechanisms, and UPS has to have the ability to play in this arena. Whether or not they are a late entrant is another story. However, they offer the consumer another choice, especially if they are satisfied with the UPS brand and overall experience.

UPS could certainly try to develop a separate local, point-to-point rapid service that enables delivery within hours, but it would have to bypass regional distribution centers to make it happen. The key enabler (as Amazon and Target/Shipt understand well) is the ability to fulfill high-demand items from locations close to the delivery points.

Since UPS does not stock goods in retail stores or fulfillment centers of its own, my money is on an acquisition of a service like DoorDash or Postmates.