Photo: RetailWire
When should non-essential retail stores reopen?
A new survey from Morning Consult finds 24 percent of U.S. consumers do not expect to feel comfortable going back to a shopping mall for at least six months. Another 26 percent were not sure when they would feel comfortable, or offered no opinion.
Half of the respondents in the survey taken from April 7 to 9 said they would be comfortable heading back in three months, including nine percent within a month and 16 percent within two months.
Another survey from First Insight, fielded on April 3, found 60 percent of U.S. consumers feel that stores should reopen by the end of May.
The surveys come amid some hopeful signals that coronavirus infections may be plateauing in hot spots like New York. Government officials are also weighing the public safety versus economic risks of relaxing social distancing guidelines.
First Insight’s survey found 87 percent of consumers now saying they are worried about the coronavirus, up from 71 percent in the last survey in mid-March.
“We may still have a way to go,” said Greg Petro, CEO of First Insight, in statement. “That said, it is important that retailers and brands continue planning by ensuring they have the right product and price when the time comes.”
Without a vaccine or understanding of how many people are immune due to a lack of testing, social distancing calls will remain. Many non-essential retailers will have to decide to what degree they will reopen. When they do so, many will add safety measures currently found in grocery stores, including restricted entry, one-way aisles and plexiglass barriers for cashiers.
Many states and cities are requiring customers to wear masks while shopping in accordance with CDC recommendations. LaBonne’s Markets, a family-owned grocery chain in Connecticut, last week began taking customers’ temperatures.
Retailers also have to consider whether it’s worth it to reopen.
H&M’s slow traffic recovery in China since reopening stores was a sign to Honor Strachan, analyst at GlobalData, that shoppers will return apprehensively in other regions, as well. Mr. Strachan wrote in a note, “Understandably retailers will be keen to reopen stores to clear seasonal stock and recover lost revenue, but the impact to profitability by opening these stores too early could be severe.”
- When Consumers Say They’ll Feel OK About Dining Out and Other Activities – Morning Consult
- New Study: Majority of Americans Believe Stores Should Reopen by End of May, 2020 – First Insight/Business Wire
- Even once Covid-19 is under control, stores may think twice about reopening right away – Quartz
- LaBonne’s Markets to Take Customers’ Temperatures – NBC Connecticut
- Why stores could start taking customers’ temperatures – CNN
- H&M’s recovery in China paints a bleak picture for retailers – 365Retail
Discussion Questions
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS: What factors should determine when non-essential stores reopen for business? What changes, if any, do you expect to see in these locations when they finally reopen?
Poll
BrainTrust
Mark Ryski
Founder, CEO & Author, HeadCount Corporation
Paula Rosenblum
Co-founder, RSR Research
Do you really think we’re qualified to answer this question? I don’t, and I’m looking for someone who has a background in infectious diseases to opine. Not a politician, not a retailer, someone who actually knows what they’re talking about.
I have my opinions, but I’m a retail analyst…
What Paula said.
I second Bethany.
Right on Paula.
100 percent, Paula!
Exactly, right on!
Agree 100%. These types of polls are dangerous
My thoughts exactly. We can only give opinions based on our beliefs and desires.
Yep.
Stores should open when public health leadership says it’s safe to do so – not politicians. Public health and safety must come before commerce. Today, the Washington Post reported that at least 41 grocery workers have died so far. Retail workers are dying to help people buy essentials, which is tragic enough – should we ask retail workers to risk their lives over a sweater? A pair of shoes? When stores do open, they will do so slowly and carefully. The fact is, store traffic will be slow to come back anyway, given the financial carnage this crisis has placed on most consumers.
Hopefully brands have the backbone to abide by this, even when they have the option to reopen because the agendas of individual governors and “economy over everything else” politicians who decide to push the the envelope because “America.”
If non-essentials can follow the social distancing and sanitary rules that are being followed by essential businesses then it should be a consideration but a lot depends on the county/state mandates in place and the situation on positive infection cases, deaths and recoveries.
Looking at how China has gone about reopening non-essential retail, I think we can expect requirements to limit the number of people in the store, to create wide enough spaces for consumers to pass each other at socially-distant lengths, wear masks in stores, perform daily or even hourly deep cleans, and yes, even temperature checks before entering stores.
Based on Chinese consumer behavior, it looks like we can expect demand for contactless commerce to remain high, even as consumers come back to stores – ordering online or via mobile for going to the store, sustained use (at least in the short term) of home delivery or curbside pickup, and BOPIS that doesn’t involve interacting directly with a store associate.
Retailers might also need to expect limited hours at first, or new staffing requirements – as governments increase their ability to rapidly ID someone who is infected and perform contact tracing, one potential impact is the need to quarantine an entire store staff that might’ve had contact. In China, retailers started instituting controlled shifts so that they aren’t mixing different workers on different shifts. That way, if one shift was exposed, it doesn’t potentially require shutting down the entire store.
When Dr. Fauci gives the green light. And I suspect that will be regionally and with newly defined social distancing rules. There is not going to be a “light switch” moment.
Unfortunately for all of us, with the President retweeting statements like this (“Time to #FireFauci…”) the decision-making may be more about politics and less about public health than most of us feel comfortable with.
In general, I think the private sector is going to have to step in on the testing front where the government has failed to do so, whether it’s a non-essential retailer (think Macy’s or Kohl’s) or a large office-based company. These employers need to work with local health systems where they already have relationships through insurance contracts to accelerate the mass testing that needs to happen soon.
There are several factors that will determine when non-essential stores will reopen for business. First, retailers will need to wait to open stores in specific states until governors lift the current restrictions on each state. This will likely not be a nationwide decision. The decisions will be complicated and based on more testing and a dramatic decrease in new COVID-19 cases.
Once non-essential retailers are given the “green light” in a given state, they will probably be operating under some new rules, at least initially. I suspect that retail associates may be required to wear face masks and gloves and they will continue to practice social distancing. Consumers may be encouraged to wear mask and gloves initially, until health officials are comfortable with the level of new cases. It is going to be weird for a while, but at least retailers will begin to open their doors soon. Whatever officials determine “soon” is in their state!
I think the consumer has it right. When approximately 50 percent of the survey participants are not comfortable or not sure about going back to the mall this should tell non-essential retailers something. Retailer precautions, like those implemented in grocery retailing, will help. But until employment comes back, consumers will not have the disposable income to spend. For now there is no rush to reopen non-essential stores.
The curve should get past peak at the state level and the national level, the number of patients that need hospitalization should be manageable by the hospital system. Hopefully this level is achievable in next few weeks.
Physical distancing must be in place for the foreseeable future. Extending the current crowd control protocols to limit shopping hours and the number of people in-store will be required for few months until therapeutics, vaccine and herd immunity are developed.
This decision has to be based on the epidemiological data and so needs guidance from scientists. That said, it is likely that the opening dates will vary from state to state – as the infection curves vary from state to state.
No decision should be guided by what consumers happen to think in a survey. People are free to exercise their personal judgment about whether to visit a mall or not, but consumer preferences don’t trump science.
It is highly dependent on the situation in specific regions of the country. We should also be cautious and mindful about reducing the chance of a second spike after businesses are open.
I would expect that the non-essential retailers are following and learning from the grocery, mass and drug retailers in terms of organizing the store, the checkout and putting precautions in place for store personnel and customers. We may see new cautions put in place such as temperature scans for all customers and requirements that everyone wears a mask for several more months.
The ultimate answer will come from our health officials with state and local government and will create hopefully clear guidelines to help non-essential retailers make this critical decision.
I’m sorry, but who in their right mind would even speculate? Follow the data. Follow the experts. Follow the need. NEED is capital letters.
Now that the curve is flattening, too many people are saying we should start opening. To me, that is a bizarre thought. I am not even sure that when the curve in on the downward trend that that is a signal.
There are other countries that are slowly opening. Let’s see what happens there. What is the rush versus the risk for a second or third wave?
As an aside, my daughter delivered a handful of babies this week. Half of the mothers were asymptomatic, but tested positive for COVID-19. Does that suggest that there is 50 percent of the population out there running around without symptoms but with the ability to spread the virus? Or 40 percent? Or 20 percent? Or even 10 percent? How can we open anything without knowing this number?
When we KNOW that our employees and our customers walking in our stores are not carrying and inadvertently spreading the virus. That is a responsibility the industry must take up and ensure federal, state and local governments provide the necessary testing to execute against.
Until there’s a vaccine, store traffic will look a whole lot different than it did before COVID-19. I just don’t see stores re-opening widely for quite some time. Customers and associates alike will want to see clear guidelines on staying safe while shopping, and we’re not there yet. The Store Operations Council is putting together a store reopening checklist and we’re soliciting input!
We are in a reverse lottery environment where it is inferred everyone has it and may die from it. I’m not minimizing concerns, however we do need to get the economy working again. There will not be an “all clear, you’re all safe.” There have always been risks to going out and meeting others. I believe consumers will indeed return sooner than later as they look for normality. With a vaccine not ready until 2021, the pressure will mount on balancing risks. Ultimately that falls on governors, not us — I trust they will make the right call.
I agree – it’s all about the infectious disease professionals. My hunch is that there may be regional relaxing of restrictions, creating a patchwork of rules. This may or may not be a good thing for containing the virus.
I don’t feel qualified to answer this question definitively, but we should definitely let science, not politics guide the way.
Having said that, as I find myself answering just about all the questions I get on this topic, the smart strategic thing to do is let humanity and building trusted long-term relationships (i.e. brand) guide the decision-making rather than transactions.
The other thing to realize is that there will likely be a big difference between when many retailers are literally open for business and when customers will return. This will not be a V-shaped recovery.
I’m neither a doctor nor a bad enough futurist to imagine I can begin to answer this question. But I do possess a modicum of common sense which tells me if we rush to reopen the economy too fast – especially for non-essential retail – the potential is fairly high that we could trigger a second wave of infection and that, if we do that and that reinfection occurs, it will be much harder to reset the economy than it will be if we wait until REAL medical and scientific authorities suggest it’s alright.
I’m with many of my colleagues here – when public health officials (not politicians) say it’s okay. And please let it be soon because I really need a haircut.
There are many of us who think that hair color and cut should be considered an essential service.
Stores should only re-open when public health officials say it is safe to do so and not before, regardless of what any politicians say. Period. Full stop. Retail leaders and retail industry experts aren’t qualified to make this call and therefore none of us should. In the event that political leaders declare retailers should re-open without the support of public health officials, I hope that retail executives have the strength to just say no and wait for the health officials to give the green light.
Stores should listen to the public health officials, their governors, and the White House. All of these inputs will provide retailers with the best health information available. Retailers will want to protect their employees and their customers, and this information will be valuable. Social distancing and screens protecting associates at check out will be used to protect all. These changes are working in grocery stores and will be more widely used. Promotions will be used to attract shoppers into coming back. Time will tell as to how fast consumers will come back to stores.
With essential businesses already struggling to keep up with the increased demands, protecting their front-line store associates and anxiety-fueled consumers, and without a horizon as to when the coronavirus will stabilize, it’s very challenging to even think of a date when non-essential retail stores can reopen.
For the time being and for the safety of the store associates and consumers, non-essential stores should focus their operating and go to market models around digital fulfillment.
What will determine when non-essential stores reopen? Individual consumers. The government can say open the country, yet each consumer will make their own risk-reward decision. The challenge: no one consumer can control or know the out-of-store behavior practiced by other shoppers or store personnel, in a usually tight store environment.
My own efforts at social distancing at the grocery store or during a walk have resulted in being spat on by a group of teen boys to mindless shoppers crowding one another in the produce department. I am positive my experiences are common. School is out for the year; my daughter is in the class of 2020. No graduation, no prom, possibly a delayed start to college in the fall.
These are difficult experiences to process through as individuals, something not reconciled by shopping for new shoes.
I think there should not be a blanket guidance given, as the physical format of individual stores has as much to do with this crisis as anything. Even sit-down restaurants could potentially open soon, if the operators separate tables by safe distances, or even better, set up portable walls (Shoji screens, etc.) between all tables. Guidance should be given around physical requirements for distancing, as opposed to what type of retailer.
Can’t disagree with the consensus “when it’s safe” but I will point out that it’s a nebulous term to define. Nothing in life is free from risk. That was just as true BC as it will be afterward.
I’d like to be optimistic about this, but one massive question nags: What will it take to make apparel try-ons safe again? This is uncharted territory. I haven’t yet heard a public health authority chime in on this topic — most likely because other factors seem more critical right now. Besides, they really have no clue about how long the virus can persist on fabrics.
It’s going to take a lot of reassurance before I pull a sweater over my head in a public fitting room.
Here’s the latest on how long Coronavirus can live on surfaces. 7 days on a surgical mask.
I’m going to defer to our medical experts to answer this question. They will give us the green light to open. Retailers can’t open up based on their own intuition.
This should be a planned enterprise with participants from many industries led by public health officials who can understand the scenarios and implications of each. Once best case, worst case, and likely scenarios are outlined, then a spectrum of planning how, in what quantities, and what kinds of activities and reopening can take place. The wrong calls here means lives will be lost. We are on track to lose more folks to this horrible disease than any other threat in the modern age. Erring on the side of caution will let us make the right call.