Of course there are — but that doesn’t mean anything will change. Major chains (as opposed to small stores like Aldi, Lidl and Trader Joe’s) which have only minor differentiation rely on convenience for traffic. Here in Atlanta, it’s rare to find a Kroger without a Publix very close by. This removes the “it’s more convenient” factor in store choice — both are convenient. Smaller stores need to worry about location — not everyone thinks driving far to an Aldi is a good use of time. Of course, we do drive 20 minutes to get to a Trader Joe’s — they’ve created themselves as a destination.

The easy answer is, yes. The more thoughtful answer is, maybe — but perhaps the real question is whether there are enough stores approaching the sale of groceries in the best way (i.e., in a way that benefits consumers on their own terms).

The problem is that many supermarkets are approaching store count in a traditional way — hoping that scale wins in the end. Of course, building scale just exacerbates the original problem. So absent a new strategic vision it is fairly easy to predict widespread contraction of the traditional industry and the failure of a good number of current players.

The short answer is yes, there are too many stores selling groceries. The market is finite and so stealing share is the only way to grow. I have no doubt that grocery chains are acutely aware of the problem as they see it reflected in their top-line sales and even more compressed margins. The situation is particularly challenging with international players entering the market and non-grocery players nibbling at market share by offering food items as a traffic stimulation strategy. At the end of the day, consumers will decide who the winners and losers will be, but until then it will be painful for grocery retailers and good for consumers. The market is finite and ultimately something has got to give — the shake out will come and it will be big.

Groceries used to be sold in grocery stores with c-stores serving as a place for quick fill-ins. As the Wall Street Journal article points out, they are now sold in a wide variety of retail formats. Each taking a piece of what supermarkets heretofore depended on. Supermarkets are adapting with less emphasis on the center stores and more on the store perimeter with produce, bakery, meats, foodservice, etc. C-stores have moved from the replacement business to refreshment, snacks and foodservice.

However, there is only so much adaptation that can take place. At some point all the sellers of food will face a situation where their networks will have to be rationalized. The questions really is, who will survive — the traditional supermarkets or the interlopers?

There is simply too much retail square footage in the U.S. Given the growth of online commerce, there is too much physical retail to support the shopper demand. Everyone in retail is hoping that if they offer food they will draw more traffic. This is a short-term, reactionary strategy that won’t be sustainable. The vertical lines between grocery, retail and QSR/foodservice is continually blurring. Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods destroyed these lines. It’s an exciting time for retail.

Yes, the analyst from Barclays is right — stop growing or we will all go out of business. Unfortunately that is not the American way as we are all judged on growth from year to year and in some cases quarter to quarter. Given these realities, the industry will need to deal with the massive amount of square footage that will be collecting dust. The industry, or more likely the real estate holders, will need to become very creative in turning these spaces into community colleges, community centers, senior living centers etc., just like malls across America are starting to do.

Absolutely! And we will see closings in the future. Let’s go back a generation or two and look at how people shopped at the supermarket. There was that once-a-week trip to stock up on everything. Mostly staples. The baskets would overflow.

Without addressing niche markets, consider how many shoppers are getting their staples from other sources. Costco, online, Amazon. As they fill these needs there is less a demand for the center-store real estate of the supermarket. Now it becomes a place of fill-in and fresh.

The trend will continue and the core real estate of the supermarket will not only become less valuable to the shopper but an albatross to the operator.

In many ways, consumers should be looked at as a fixed resource with retailers across any segment, even grocery, vying for market share within that fixed resource. Grocery has an advantage over other segments which is making it very popular right now — consumers have to buy food, so there is a sense of automatic foot traffic generation that’s implied. Convenience is very important as most people don’t want to drive out of their way for groceries if they don’t have to. Some brands, Trader Joe’s comes to mind, have made a point of differentiating on product such that consumers WILL go out of their way to shop there. Not every grocery brand can do this.

In the end there must be a shake out and stores will close but, until then, consumers will win as all of these brands try desperately to make themselves into a destination either with specialized products or with new service offerings. Fortunately for consumers, this will lead to an improved grocery shopping experience.

There clearly are too many grocery stores and it’s rapidly becoming very difficult to differentiate between the brands. What may evolve out of the rapid expansion plans of Lidl, Aldi and potentially the smaller-scale Whole Foods/Amazon/365 hybrid is that the grocery store will become far more specialized. It will offer far more organic assortments curated to the local markets and will no longer be the one-stop destination that we all grew up with in the suburbs.

The most precious commodity outside of money is time. If the grocery business evolves and the stores focus on organic, lifestyle and holistic trending products in a format that is easy to navigate, enabling far greater self services capabilities, they will be able to differentiate themselves from the intense competition.

Convenience is one thing, but the in-store experience and product assortments are critical as well.

NO! There are not “too many grocery stores.” But the stores that there are, are designed to accommodate suppliers and retailers — NOT shoppers. It is NOT online that is assaulting brick-and-mortar retailers, it is someone aggressively dedicated to the shoppers.

The story has way too many facets to treat here, but mostly the recognition of the “Houston, we have a problem!” variety is all we hear. WHAT the problem is, is largely unrecognized. If it was “too many stores,” why are the new players, INCLUDING AMAZON, building NEW brick-and-mortar stores? What is needed is brain transplants all around. And this is only a nudge: The Problem: “Parked” Capital — September 30, 2014.

In terms of retail, the internet is the great divider. Categories like apparel and home goods will need less space because online sales are cannibalizing brick-and-mortar revenues. However for immediate consumption categories, like groceries (especially perishables), the transition to online sales will be slower — and may never completely go digital. I predict that there will always be a percentage of grocery shoppers who “hold out.”

About too many stores — no, I don’t believe there are too many grocery stores. But I do believe that they are poorly distributed. There are food deserts and food meccas. Grocers are chasing the same affluent demographics, mostly in the same ZIP codes. This leads to diminishing returns.

Maybe. Certainly there are too many traditional stores selling the same items with the same promotions. The number of stores may not be as relevant as the way the stores function. Are they being used as mini-warehouses for online shopping? Are assortments appropriate for that location? Is in-store space being used appropriately for consumers who frequent that store? If these and other issues are not addressed, there will be many more stores closing.

Joining the conversation at the back end leaves little to be constructively added. My only point is that there are not too many stores selling groceries as there are too many stores with little positive differentiation selling groceries in the U.S. The new entrants, both bricks & mortar and online, offer points of difference to the big middle players that have graced the food marketing landscape for almost one hundred years.

Unless and until these operators morph into something American shoppers consider attractive enough to forego online or drive past one of the new players, some will find themselves in the position of Sears, where America used to shop.

Over time, markets segment. That is an eternal law of marketing. What we are seeing is an expansion of alternative channels that are taking a piece of the grocery “pie” (only a small pun intended!). The segmentation of grocery will narrow the customer base (segment) for each channel to customers who have an affinity for that channel. Then the channel must work to optimize share of wallet and margin by improving customer experience and product options for the specific needs of that segment.