Before the pandemic hit, the US had too much bad retail space. The distress caused by the lockdown has accelerated the drop out of that space, the vast majority of which will not return. Sadly, that will cause job losses in front line retail and, as such, we will likely see that part of the workforce shrink permanently.

However, there are two more positive caveats to this. First, new jobs will be created in different areas. Logistics, warehousing, fulfillment and so forth are all expanding; new innovative industries such as robotics will also create opportunities over the years ahead. Secondly, once we are through this period of disruption, there will be some retail expansion. New brands will grow and open stores, we will still see new shopping centers being built and expanded.

The present disruption is causing shifts. It does not spell the end of all development and progression in retail.

Breaking news: Neiman Marcus abandons Hudson Yards, so yes, instability is causing chaos for retail workers. Will the developers carve it up into office space or boutiques? One thing is sure: it was a painful decision for a store not even open a year and with great design cues.

Oh, let’s not forget for a minute Neiman Marcus Group paid $4 million in bonuses to Chairman and Chief Executive Geoffroy van Raemdonck in February and more than $4 million to other executives in the weeks before its May 7 bankruptcy filing. We’re not out of the woods yet.

Considering the positive news regarding vaccine trials in the past two weeks alone, it is realistic that by the end of Q1 2021 things will begin to return to some form of “normal.” While the level of retail employment will fluctuate considerably, and likely will trend down for the remainder of the year, the composition of employment is where the focus should be. The re-skilling and retooling needed for roles that will be need to be distributed from front-of-house in order to support the realities of modern retailing: fulfillment, BOPIS, reverse logistics etc. This will also vary considerably category to category.

Make no mistake: the pandemic has been a catastrophe for the retail industry, and we are nowhere near returning to normal. Many more prominent players will fall thanks to the bungling of our response.

Yes and yes. I believe the lingering effects of the pandemic will be felt for years as the industry recalibrates. Not only will there be fewer employment opportunities in general (notwithstanding pockets of growth), but I think working in retail — especially frontline — has become less desirable. Nothing lasts forever, but this industry will need years to recover.

Retail employment has been reduced for the long term. Retail businesses that were undergoing difficult times pre-pandemic have gone into bankruptcy and have closed or will close hundreds more stores. Those jobs are not coming back in retail so quickly. Some workers will retire, some will move onto another industry, some will come back into the retail industry working for the businesses that are in growth mode, but the total pie of jobs has shrunk permanently.

This all feels a lot more like “shrink and shift” than “bounce and return.” fewer physical stores, fewer malls, less square footage, more ecomm, more fulfillment, more last mile, more automation and efficiency = fewer overall retail jobs.

The over-expansion strategies of the 90s and mid-00s led to the overwhelming amount of retail space. As consumer behaviors shifted to a blend of digital and physical commerce, it isn’t a critical imperative to have the mall as the center of the shopping experience. We just heard that Neiman Marcus’s showcase department store of the future at Hudson Yards will be closed.

Before COVID-19, we were witnessing the compression of retail spaces, as companies have been rationalizing their store footprints, consolidating in certain markets, and closing unprofitable stores to preserve liquidity, save cash and drive revenues in the profitable stores. This is not a new development. The Great Acceleration caused by the pandemic has had catastrophic impacts on the retail industry and has led to mass store closures and bankruptcies.

As our normal shifts on a daily basis, it’s clear that in our pandemic/post-pandemic world that less is more.

Too many bad or over-stored chains has been the US story for a long time. No market is infinite, and we long since hit the upper edge of ours.

“Permanently” is a long time, but the economic havoc caused by the pandemic will take some recovery time. It’s clear that many of the stores closing locations or declaring bankruptcy were weakened even before the crisis — too many locations, too much debt, no sustainable reason for growing market share. The shift to e-commerce, and the decline of the mall, didn’t just start in mid-March.

I’m cautiously optimistic about treatments and vaccines, but I’m not sure they mean the return to “normal” retail business. There will be opportunities to pick up real estate, to be sure, but I think many customers have discovered what they need and what they don’t need over the past six months. They may be hungering for experiential spending more than “stuff.”

Unfortunately, no. We won’t see pre-pandemic employment soon, due to COVID-19’s Darwinian decluttering of retail companies and workers.

Grocery cashiers have evolved into self-checkout problem solvers. Warehouse workers are increasingly replaced by robots. Surviving sales associates have been redeployed to process the mountain of returned merchandise that piled up when stores remained shut. These trends show retail work is shifting toward tech and a smooth customer experience.

We still have a tsunami of job losses ahead of us, as the generosity of governments and landlords is finite. Yet people will continue to seek retail work, even if it’s part-time and it comes with higher frontline risks. Right now, some of the most fascinating roles are in automating retail to modernize operations for efficiency. These types of technical and managerial roles will attract retail professionals for the long term.

This isn’t just about stores that closed because they needed to close, we’re beyond that. But permanently is a long time and no one knows how the retail stores/chains that survived will fare in the long run. We all hope they rebound, no matter how long it takes.

Retail employees at all levels have been hit hard. People seek corporate stability when job hunting so future recruiting will be tough, especially for mid to higher level positions. That being said, the entire job market isn’t looking so good right now. The affects of the pandemic will be with us long after it is over.

There is probably zero chance of retail employment returning to pre-pandemic levels. The US has been over-stored for years and there has been too much capital propping up irrelevant retailers that had no business surviving. It’s exacerbated by the giants and their evolution into truly mass merchants that are seemingly unstoppable; and e-commerce of course. Maybe we end up in a bar-bell scenario where there are the mega merchants and — one can hope — small ones that are local/glocal? Sadly, the retail industry no longer needs brands like Sears and Kmart, JCP, Stage Stores and some or all of the Ascena brands. Then consider the future of Macy’s, Neiman Marcus and even Nordstrom, all of which are too large, at least in terms of doors. I’d love to be wrong about this but the longer we are in pandemic-mode, not to mention recession/depression, the more likely the damage is permanent. Just because the industry is smaller doesn’t necessarily mean it will be harder to recruit. It could turn out to be just the opposite,… Read more »

The thinking going through the minds of many retail employers is “how do I reduce my costs so I can stay alive during this time period?” As we all recall, the top expense for most retailers is labor — finding ways to reduce this expense can translate into actual profit for the time period. Retailers will find ways to reduce staff and increase productivity. In back office operations, retailers will look to automation. In storefront ops, it will be reducing staff and finding ways to extend staff duties.

The typical store employee is not highly skilled. High school students can operate a register or manage basic restocking, so as long as there is a demand for jobs, there won’t be a problem in recruiting workers. However, that doesn’t bring in top talent or committed talent to retailers who build from within. Whatever the case, COVID-19 has inflicted a scar on the retail industry which will take time to heal and needs to prevent further infection.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that retailers will need to fundamentally change the way they go to market. The surge in online shopping and finding alternative means to get goods to consumers (e.g. curbside pickup, turning entire stores into fulfillment centers) has left many retailers unprepared for this now, new-normal and has exposed their slow speed towards digital transformation. Yes, some technologies (e.g. digital shelf, AI/ML) may require new skill sets currently not well developed in frontline employees — which may lead to downsizing for some — but opportunities for others. Ultimately, this is not about downsizing but about transformation. The time for functional thinking about retail is over. A transformative mind-set is needed to ensure the industry is not only prepared to withstand the next life-altering event, but also to ensure the industry is prepared to meet evolved consumer demands that are being shaped, and likely will remain, once this pandemic is over. Retailers with scale should start now in evaluating where they have been hit hardest and why. Then work strategically toward technology-enabled, sustainable… Read more »

Unfortunately, I don’t see the retail industry returning to pre-pandemic levels in the near future. Many retailers were already struggling and this pushed them over the edge or gave them the excuse to shut down stores, downsize, etc.

It will be years before retail industry employment returns to pre-pandemic levels. Smart retailers like Nordstrom are shifting sales associates to fulfillment roles for curbside or online orders.

The issue will be that unlike sales positions, fulfillment roles don’t allow for commissions and the wages are not living wages, so the incentive to work in retail will diminish. The quality of personnel and longevity with an employee will decline.

Permanent is a long time. I think brick and mortar store front had over inventoried in many areas and in the wrong format, this pandemic accelerated and forced a reset in those areas. Retail sales figures in total will recover as the employment figures recover, the type of spending and where it goes will change.